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Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Climatic Precursors before Major Earthquakes in Iran (2011–2021)

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar

    (Department of Geography and Natural Hazards, Research Institute SP, Mashhad 91978-75699, Iran)

  • Friedemann T. Freund

    (SETI Institute, 339 N Bernardo Ave Suite 200, Mountain View, CA 94043, USA)

  • Majid Ebrahimi

    (Department of Physical Geography, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar 96179-76487, Iran)

Abstract

The present study provides a systematic assessment of the relationships between climatic variables and major earthquakes (M > 6) in Iran (2011–2021). These variables include total cloud cover (tcc), low cloud cover (lcc), total precipitation (tp), surface latent heat flux (slhf), and total column rainwater (tcrw). Based on a wider set of variables provided by a multidimensional global dataset (ERA5), the combination of a cross-correlation function (CCF) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was used to develop the spatial and temporal analytic relations. Covering maximal values from 0.42 to 0.92, the CCF plots revealed that an increase in climatic parameters could provide valuable information about impending earthquake activity within 8 to 20 days. The mean values of tcc, lcc, tp, slhf, and tcrw were found to increase by 95%, 60%, 80.0 mm, 105 W/m 2 , and 95 kg −3 /m 2 , respectively. In fact, with the mean AUC (area under the curve) indices ranging from 0.677 (tcc) to 0.810 (tcrw) prior to major earthquakes, the ROC plots allowed for discrimination between seismic and climatic variables ranging from “acceptable” to “excellent”. The changes in the climatic variables under study were due to anomalous air ionization and water condensation in the atmosphere, which can be regarded as short-term precursors to major earthquakes.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar & Friedemann T. Freund & Majid Ebrahimi, 2023. "Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Climatic Precursors before Major Earthquakes in Iran (2011–2021)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-30, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:14:p:11023-:d:1193899
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lorena Liuzzo & Vincenzo Sammartano & Gabriele Freni, 2019. "Comparison between Different Distributed Methods for Flood Susceptibility Mapping," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(9), pages 3155-3173, July.
    2. Mohammad Mansouri Daneshvar & Mahmood Khosravi & Taghi Tavousi, 2014. "Seismic triggering of atmospheric variables prior to the major earthquakes in the Middle East within a 12-year time-period of 2002–2013," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 1539-1553, December.
    3. Muhammad Muzamil Khan & Bushra Ghaffar & Rasim Shahzad & M. Riaz Khan & Munawar Shah & Ali H. Amin & Sayed M. Eldin & Najam Abbas Naqvi & Rashid Ali, 2022. "Atmospheric Anomalies Associated with the 2021 M w 7.2 Haiti Earthquake Using Machine Learning from Multiple Satellites," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-17, November.
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