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A Study on the Development of China’s Financial Leasing Industry Based on Principal Component Analysis and ARIMA Model

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  • Weiwei Lin

    (College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China)

  • Yanping Shi

    (School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China)

Abstract

The sustainable development of China’s financial leasing industry is a growing concern among scholars. This paper analyzes the development data of China’s financial leasing industry from 2008–2021, using the dimensions of scale, speed, efficiency, structure, and quality. By employing principal component analysis, we construct the development index of China’s financial leasing industry and analyze the reasons for changes in the development level of the industry from the internal structure of the index. The study finds that scale serves as a key factor in the development of China’s financial leasing industry. While the contribution value of the structure factor shows fluctuations, the contribution values of the return and risk factors remain relatively stable. Using the ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) prediction model based on the principal component analysis, we establish the prediction model of the financial leasing industry change in the coming years. The study reveals that the financial leasing industry has entered a period of transformation, where the growth rate of its scale has dropped. Furthermore, this paper offers proposals to address the increasingly prominent asset-liability maturity mismatch problem, promote business structure optimization, enhance the contribution value of the structure factor and the income factor, and facilitate sustainable, higher-quality industry development.

Suggested Citation

  • Weiwei Lin & Yanping Shi, 2023. "A Study on the Development of China’s Financial Leasing Industry Based on Principal Component Analysis and ARIMA Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:13:p:9913-:d:1176327
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ntumba Marc-Alain Mutombo & Bubele Papy Numbi, 2022. "The Development of ARIMA Models for the Clear Sky Beam and Diffuse Optical Depths for HVAC Systems Design Using RTSM: A Case Study of the Umlazi Township Area, South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Piotr Marek Jaworski & Simon Gao & Adam Sliwinski, 2014. "Emerging market financial services development: the case of leasing in Poland and China," International Journal of Innovation and Learning, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 15(4), pages 365-382.
    3. Huan Wang & Jiejun Huang & Han Zhou & Lixue Zhao & Yanbin Yuan, 2019. "An Integrated Variational Mode Decomposition and ARIMA Model to Forecast Air Temperature," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-11, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zaoxian Wang & Dechun Huang, 2023. "A New Perspective on Financial Risk Prediction in a Carbon-Neutral Environment: A Comprehensive Comparative Study Based on the SSA-LSTM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-22, October.

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