IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i12p9825-d1175208.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Early Warning Evaluation and Warning Trend Analysis of the Resource and Environment Carrying Capacity in Altay Prefecture, Xinjiang

Author

Listed:
  • Shengxin Lan

    (School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Altay District Administration Office, Ili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Altay 836500, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Xiaona Wang

    (College of Business, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Meifang Li

    (College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Shaoshan South Road, Tianxin District, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Xiaohua Fu

    (College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Shaoshan South Road, Tianxin District, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Mei Xu

    (College of Tourism, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Shaoshan South Road, Tianxin District, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Jian Zhu

    (College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Shaoshan South Road, Tianxin District, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Ping Wang

    (College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Shaoshan South Road, Tianxin District, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Yu Mao

    (College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Shaoshan South Road, Tianxin District, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Zuoji Dong

    (School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Jiahui Li

    (Hunan Planning Institute of Land and Resources, Furong Middle Road, Changsha 410007, China)

  • Lanfang Cao

    (College of Business, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Zhiming Liu

    (Department of Biology, Eastern New Mexico University, Portales, NM 88130, USA)

Abstract

Ecologically fragile areas in China account for more than half of its land area. Performing early warning assessments and trend analyses of resource and environment carrying capacity in ecologically fragile areas can lay a scientific foundation for ecological conservation in the areas. Based on the connotation of resource and environment carrying capacity, an early warning index system of resource and environment carrying capacity in Altay prefecture was constructed from the three aspects natural resource carrying capacity, eco-environment carrying capacity, and economic and social support capacity. The grey relational projection method model was used to analyze the current alarm situation of the resource and environment carrying capacity in Altay prefecture from 2011 to 2020, and then the back propagation (BP) neural network and a mathematical statistics software were used to predict the evolution of the alarm situation of the resource and environment carrying capacity in Altay prefecture from 2021 to 2025. The results demonstrated that (1) the natural resource carrying capacity subsystem was the main system of the development of the resource and environment carrying capacity in Altay prefecture, and its impact on the resource and environment carrying capacity in Altay prefecture was greater than the eco-environment carrying capacity and economic and social support capacity; (2) the resource and environmental carrying capacity of Altay prefecture showed a slight upward trend from 2011 to 2020, although the range was constrained and the level of warning remained “moderate warning”. A spatial pattern of “weak in the middle, strong in the two poles” was exhibited by the warning scenario about the carrying capacity of each county and city. Except for the warning of Habahe County and Qinghe County, where the warning was slightly worse than that in 2020, the warning of resource and environment carrying capacity in Altay prefecture and other counties and cities would show a trend of fluctuation and decline from 2021 to 2025. However, the degree of alarm did not change substantially and remained at the level of “moderate warning”; (3) the main factors restricting the mitigation of the warning of resource and environment carrying capacity in Altay prefecture included a low soil fertility index, a small total reservoir capacity, low per capita mineral resource reserves, a low water resource development and utilization rate, a low comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste, and a low land output rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Shengxin Lan & Xiaona Wang & Meifang Li & Xiaohua Fu & Mei Xu & Jian Zhu & Ping Wang & Yu Mao & Zuoji Dong & Jiahui Li & Lanfang Cao & Zhiming Liu, 2023. "Early Warning Evaluation and Warning Trend Analysis of the Resource and Environment Carrying Capacity in Altay Prefecture, Xinjiang," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:12:p:9825-:d:1175208
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/12/9825/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/12/9825/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jinjing Hu & Yong Huang & Jie Du, 2021. "The Impact of Urban Development Intensity on Ecological Carrying Capacity: A Case Study of Ecologically Fragile Areas," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-25, July.
    2. Yan Yan & Chunli Zhao & Yuan Quan & Huiting Lu & Yi Rong & Gang Wu, 2017. "Interrelations of Ecosystem Services and Rural Population Wellbeing in an Ecologically-Fragile Area in North China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-12, April.
    3. Zhiping Zhang & Fuqiang Xia & Degang Yang & Yufang Zhang & Tianyi Cai & Rongwei Wu, 2019. "Comparative Study of Environmental Assessment Methods in the Evaluation of Resources and Environmental Carrying Capacity—A Case Study in Xinjiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-16, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuchen Zhu & Yaci Liu & Yong Xiao & Jiahuan Liu & Zihui Zhao & Yasong Li & Qichen Hao & Chunlei Liu & Jianfeng Li, 2024. "Construction of Ecological Security Patterns Incorporating Multiple Types of Ecological Service Functions for Developed Coastal Regions: A Case Study in Jinjiang Watershed, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-24, August.
    2. Xinhao Min & Yanning Wang & Jun Chen, 2022. "Resource Carrying Capacity Evaluation Based on Fuzzy Evaluation: Validation Using Karst Landscape Region in Southwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Hui Zou & Xiaohua Ma, 2021. "Identifying resource and environmental carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China: the perspectives of spatial differences and sustainable development," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14775-14798, October.
    4. Guiyou Zhang & Shuai Luo & Zhuowei Jing & Shuo Wei & Youhua Ma, 2020. "Evaluation and Forewarning Management of Regional Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity: A Case Study of Hefei City, Anhui Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, February.
    5. Meishu Wang & Hui Gong, 2018. "Imbalanced Development and Economic Burden for Urban and Rural Wastewater Treatment in China—Discharge Limit Legislation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-12, July.
    6. Xueli Chen & Yongyong Song & Xingang Fan & Jing Ma, 2022. "Sustainable Population Size at the County Level under Limited Development Policy Constraints: Case Study of the Xihaigu Mountain Area, Northwest China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-21, August.
    7. Aguado, Mateo & González, José A. & Bellott, Kr'sna & López-Santiago, César & Montes, Carlos, 2018. "Exploring subjective well-being and ecosystem services perception along a rural–urban gradient in the high Andes of Ecuador," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 34(PA), pages 1-10.
    8. Jue Wang & Rui Wang, 2024. "The Impact of Urbanization on Environmental Quality in Ecologically Fragile Areas: Evidence from Hengduan Mountain, Southwest China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-18, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:12:p:9825-:d:1175208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.