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Projection of Meteorological Dryness/Wetness Evolution Based on Multi-Model Scenarios in Poyang Lake Basin, China

Author

Listed:
  • Yueping Deng

    (Poyang Lake Water Resources Monitoring Center, Nanchang 330038, China)

  • Wenyu Jiang

    (College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Tianyu Zhang

    (China Meteorological Administration Economic Transformation of Climate Resources Key Laboratory, Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147, China)

  • Jing Chen

    (Jiangxi Hydrology Monitoring Center, Nanchang 330002, China)

  • Zhi Wu

    (Jiangxi Hydrology Monitoring Center, Nanchang 330002, China)

  • Yuanqing Liu

    (College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Xinyue Tao

    (College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Bo Liu

    (College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

Abstract

Based on the projections of three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios of three climate models of CMIP6, this study analyzed the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to understand the future meteorological dryness/wetness changes in the Poyang Lake basin (PLB) from 2021 to 2100. The effect of temperature change on the dryness and wetness variation was explored by comparing the trends of SPEI and standardized precipitation index (SPI) at multiple-time scales and different SSPs scenarios. The results indicate that the frequency of drought events may increase by 1.1~3.8% than the historical period in the three scenarios, and they may be higher than that of wetness events in the future of this century. Cumulative months of drought events are higher in most decades than the wetness events, and especially in the 2090s. A total of 43 months may suffer drought events in the 2090s under the SSP585 scenario, which is more than twice the wetness events. With the enhanced concentration of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, both the frequency of droughts and the proportion of extreme droughts show a significant increasing trend at 99% confidence in PLB. The spatial distribution of net precipitation is generally in the southwest–northeast pattern, yet it is still in different values in most scenarios; thus, the uncertainty of dryness/wetness spatial conditions should be considered. The SPI detects more wetness events and a more intensive wetting trend, while the SPEI shows the opposite. The difference between SPI and SPEI gradually increases with GHG emission concentration, and may even lead to contrary conclusion in the last two decades at a 48-month scale under the SSP245 and 585 scenarios, indicating the unneglectable impact of increasing temperature and evapotranspiration on the dryness/wetness conditions in the future. The research results can help to predict the evolution pattern of dry and wet occurrence in the PLB in the future and promote flood/drought control and disaster mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yueping Deng & Wenyu Jiang & Tianyu Zhang & Jing Chen & Zhi Wu & Yuanqing Liu & Xinyue Tao & Bo Liu, 2023. "Projection of Meteorological Dryness/Wetness Evolution Based on Multi-Model Scenarios in Poyang Lake Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-15, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:10:p:8194-:d:1149640
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elahi, Ehsan & Khalid, Zainab & Tauni, Muhammad Zubair & Zhang, Hongxia & Lirong, Xing, 2022. "Extreme weather events risk to crop-production and the adaptation of innovative management strategies to mitigate the risk: A retrospective survey of rural Punjab, Pakistan," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Weilin Liu & Shengnan Zhu & Yipeng Huang & Yifan Wan & Bin Wu & Lina Liu, 2020. "Spatiotemporal Variations of Drought and Their Teleconnections with Large-Scale Climate Indices over the Poyang Lake Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-18, April.
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    Keywords

    dry/wet projection; climate change; CMIP6; Poyang Lake basin;
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