IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i10p7831-d1143811.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Study on the Effects of Tax Reduction Policies on Fiscal Sustainability in China

Author

Listed:
  • Qiongzhi Liu

    (School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China)

  • Xikai Zhang

    (School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China)

Abstract

Tax reduction policies can promote economic development, employment, and social equity in the short term. Especially during economic downturns, their effects are even more pronounced. Following the massive tax cuts amounting to 4 trillion yuan in China in 2022, the government work report for 2023 has revealed that tax reduction will continue to be the central theme of fiscal policies. However, amidst a backdrop of economic growth slowdown, China is facing objective challenges such as sluggish growth in fiscal revenues, rising inflexibility in fiscal expenditures, mounting debt burdens, and fiscal imbalances among regions, which pose severe threats to fiscal sustainability. This paper selects panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2009 to 2019. Controlling for provincial and year fixed effects, FGLS method is used to empirically test the impact of tax reduction policies on fiscal sustainability. The results indicate that tax reduction significantly undermines fiscal sustainability, which exhibits a certain degree of persistence. Heterogeneity tests reveal that tax reduction policies have more pronounced inhibitory effects on fiscal sustainability in western regions, regions with lower proportions of the tertiary industry, and regions with higher levels of fiscal decentralization. Further analysis demonstrates that tax reduction primarily impacts local fiscal sustainability through two channels: stimulating enterprise production and distorting local government behavior. Based on these findings, our study proposes the need to moderate the pace of overall tax reduction policies in China, implement tax reduction policies with varying intensities tailored to regional characteristics, and promote tax reduction policy dividends as well as reduce policy costs to enhance fiscal sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiongzhi Liu & Xikai Zhang, 2023. "A Study on the Effects of Tax Reduction Policies on Fiscal Sustainability in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:10:p:7831-:d:1143811
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/10/7831/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/10/7831/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qiongzhi Liu & Dapeng Zhao, 2023. "A Study of the Impact of Population Aging on Fiscal Sustainability in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Cai, Xiqian & Lu, Yi & Wu, Mingqin & Yu, Linhui, 2016. "Does environmental regulation drive away inbound foreign direct investment? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 73-85.
    3. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    4. Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013. "Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 4-30, February.
    5. Bulír, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2008. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2048-2066, October.
    6. Helms, L Jay, 1985. "The Effect of State and Local Taxes on Economic Growth: A Time Series-Cross Section Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 574-582, November.
    7. Banerjee, Abhijit V & Duflo, Esther, 2003. "Inequality and Growth: What Can the Data Say?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 267-299, September.
    8. Danielova, Anna & Sarkar, Sudipto, 2011. "The effect of leverage on the tax-cut versus investment-subsidy argument," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 123-129.
    9. Bohn, Henning, 1995. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-271, February.
    10. Manwar Hossein Malla & Pairote Pathranarakul, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and Income Inequality: The Critical Role of Institutional Capacity," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-16, May.
    11. Mr. George Kopits & Mr. Steven A. Symansky, 1998. "Fiscal Policy Rules," IMF Occasional Papers 1998/011, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
    13. Lei Zhang & Yuyu Chen & Zongyan He, 2018. "The effect of investment tax incentives: evidence from China’s value-added tax reform," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(4), pages 913-945, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jingyi Yang & Xiaoyang Guo & Yang Shen, 2024. "Research on Global Tax Governance under the Background of Digital Economy," Review of Economic Assessment, Anser Press, vol. 3(1), pages 86-101, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Markus Reischmann, 2016. "Empirical Studies on Public Debt and Fiscal Transfers," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 63.
    2. Tamborini, Roberto & Tomaselli, Matteo, 2020. "The determinants of austerity in the European Union 2010–16," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. D’Erasmo, P. & Mendoza, E.G. & Zhang, J., 2016. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2493-2597, Elsevier.
    4. Pierre ALDAMA & Jérôme Creel, 2017. "Fiscal policy in the US : Ricardian after all ?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-23, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    5. Kimura, Hidemi & Mori, Yuko & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2012. "Aid Proliferation and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-10.
    6. Abdramane Camara, 2023. "The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Tax Revenue," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 168-190, March.
    7. Carter, Patrick, 2017. "Aid econometrics: Lessons from a stochastic growth model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-232.
    8. Marrero,Gustavo Alberto & Rodríguez,Juan Gabriel & Van Der Weide,Roy, 2021. "Does Race and Gender Inequality Impact Income Growth ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9865, The World Bank.
    9. Lankester-Campos, Valerie & Loaiza-Marín, Kerry & Monge-Badilla, Carlos, 2020. "Assessing public debt sustainability for Costa Rica using the fiscal reaction function," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4718gto3ar8s3r4k307p0bvbcs is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Lees, Kirdan, 2013. "Fighting fit? Assessing New Zealand’s fiscal sustainability," NZIER Working Paper 2013/5, New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.
    12. González, Rosa Marina & Marrero, Gustavo A. & Rodríguez-López, Jesús & Marrero, Ángel S., 2019. "Analyzing CO2 emissions from passenger cars in Europe: A dynamic panel data approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1271-1281.
    13. Katia Berti & Eugeniu Colesnic & Cyril Desponts & Stephanie Pamies & Etienne Sail, 2016. "Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 028, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    14. Yoshida, Motonori, 2023. "Chronological changes of government sectors’ fiscal policies and fiscal sustainability in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    15. Abdramane Camara, 2019. "The effect of foreign direct investment on tax revenue in developing countries," Working Papers hal-03188025, HAL.
    16. Hyejin Ko, 2020. "Measuring fiscal sustainability in the welfare state: fiscal space as fiscal sustainability," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 531-554, May.
    17. Neto, David, 2020. "Tracking fiscal discipline. Looking for a PIIGS on the wing," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 147-154.
    18. Jochimsen, Beate & Raffer, Christian, 2020. "Local Government Fiscal Regulation in the EU: The Impact of Balanced Budget Rules," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224566, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sow, Moussé, 2017. "Is fiscal policy always counter- (pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 138-146.
    20. Konstantinos Matakos & Dimitrios Xefteris, 2017. "Divide and rule: redistribution in a model with differentiated candidates," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(4), pages 867-902, April.
    21. Joshua Aizenman & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2013. "Special Issue. Guest Editor: Zhihao Yu," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 397-413, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:10:p:7831-:d:1143811. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.