Comparative Assessment of Individual and Ensemble Machine Learning Models for Efficient Analysis of River Water Quality

The prediction accuracies of machine learning (ML) models may not only be dependent on the input parameters and training dataset, but also on whether an ensemble or individual learning model is selected. The present study is based on the comparison of individual supervised ML models, such as gene expression programming (GEP) and artificial neural network (ANN), with that of an ensemble learning model, i.e., random forest (RF), for predicting river water salinity in terms of electrical conductivity (EC) and dissolved solids (TDS) in the Upper Indus River basin, Pakistan. The projected models were trained and tested by using a dataset of seven input parameters chosen on the basis of significant correlation. Optimization of the ensemble RF model was achieved by producing 20 sub-models in order to choose the accurate one. The goodness-of-fit of the models was assessed through well-known statistical indicators, such as the coefficient of determination (R 2 ), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). The results demonstrated a strong association between inputs and modeling outputs, where R 2 value was found to be 0.96, 0.98, and 0.92 for the GEP, RF, and ANN models, respectively. The comparative performance of the proposed methods showed the relative superiority of the RF compared to GEP and ANN. Among the 20 RF sub-models, the most accurate model yielded the R 2 equal to 0.941 and 0.938, with 70 and 160 numbers of corresponding estimators. The lowest RMSE values of 1.37 and 3.1 were yielded by the ensemble RF model on training and testing data, respectively. The results of the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that HCO 3 − is the most effective variable followed by Cl − and SO 4 2− for both the EC and TDS. The assessment of the models on external criteria ensured the generalized results of all the aforementioned techniques. Conclusively, the outcome of the present research indicated that the RF model with selected key parameters could be prioritized for water quality assessment and management.