IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i22p15045-d972544.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A System Dynamic Analysis of Urban Development Paths under Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Targets: A Case Study of Shanghai

Author

Listed:
  • Junwei Gao

    (Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China)

  • Lingying Pan

    (Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China)

Abstract

In 2021, under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets of China, Shanghai declared that it would peak carbon emissions by 2025. This would require the formulation of specific and effective implementation paths of low-carbon development. This paper conducts a dynamic study on Shanghai’s carbon dioxide emissions by establishing a system dynamic model of Shanghai’s economy-energy-carbon emission. It studies the implementation path of Shanghai’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets by scenario analysis. The results show that under the Baseline Scenario, Shanghai’s carbon emissions will peak by 2035, which is later than what the government promised. However, the Carbon-Peak and Deep-Low-Carbon Scenarios suggest that Shanghai can achieve the carbon peaking target in 2025, and the CO 2 emission intensity will drop by 89.2% and 92.4%, respectively, by 2060. Improving the industrial energy utilization efficiency and the proportion of clean electricity is crucial for Shanghai to reduce carbon emissions. The transportation sector will become the main sector of urban energy consumption in the late stage of carbon neutralization. Without considering carbon sinks, the costs of achieving carbon neutrality for the three scenarios are approximately 5.68 billion, 2.79 billion and 1.96 billion USD, respectively. Finally, this paper puts forward relevant suggestions on promoting the transformation of energy structure, and strengthening specific emission reduction measures of various departments, to provide references for Shanghai’s policy formulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Junwei Gao & Lingying Pan, 2022. "A System Dynamic Analysis of Urban Development Paths under Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Targets: A Case Study of Shanghai," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-27, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:22:p:15045-:d:972544
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/22/15045/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/22/15045/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xiang, Xiwang & Ma, Minda & Ma, Xin & Chen, Liming & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei & Ma, Zhili, 2022. "Historical decarbonization of global commercial building operations in the 21st century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    2. Pan, Lingying & Liu, Pei & Li, Zheng, 2017. "A system dynamic analysis of China’s oil supply chain: Over-capacity and energy security issues," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 508-520.
    3. Li, Wei & Gao, Shubin, 2018. "Prospective on energy related carbon emissions peak integrating optimized intelligent algorithm with dry process technique application for China's cement industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 33-54.
    4. Huang, Ren & Zhang, Sufang & Wang, Peng, 2022. "Key areas and pathways for carbon emissions reduction in Beijing for the “Dual Carbon” targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    5. Wu, Rong & Wang, Jieyu & Wang, Shaojian & Feng, Kuishuang, 2021. "The drivers of declining CO2 emissions trends in developed nations using an extended STIRPAT model: A historical and prospective analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2021. "Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yanming Sun & Yile Yang & Shixian Liu & Qingli Li, 2023. "Research on Transportation Carbon Emission Peak Prediction and Judgment System in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-17, October.
    2. Hongqiang Wang & Wenyi Xu & Yingjie Zhang, 2023. "Research on Provincial Carbon Emission Reduction Path Based on LMDI-SD-Tapio Decoupling Model: The Case of Guizhou, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Wenqiang Guo & Siqi Chen & Ming Lei, 2023. "Evolutionary Game and Strategy Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction in Supply Chain Based on System Dynamic Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-22, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zeng, Qingshun & Shi, Changfeng & Zhu, Wenjun & Zhi, Jiaqi & Na, Xiaohong, 2023. "Sequential data-driven carbon peaking path simulation research of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration based on semantic mining and heuristic algorithm optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Hussain, Jafar, 2023. "An assessment of socioeconomic indicators and energy consumption by considering green financing," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Gen Li & Shihong Zeng & Tengfei Li & Qiao Peng & Muhammad Irfan, 2023. "Analysing the Effect of Energy Intensity on Carbon Emission Reduction in Beijing," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Dong, Jia & Li, Cunbin, 2022. "Scenario prediction and decoupling analysis of carbon emission in Jiangsu Province, China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    5. Chen, Huadun & Du, Qianxi & Huo, Tengfei & Liu, Peiran & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2023. "Spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanism of carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    6. Dehghan, Hamed & Amin-Naseri, Mohammad Reza & Nahavandi, Nasim, 2021. "A system dynamics model to analyze future electricity supply and demand in Iran under alternative pricing policies," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Mehmet Balcilar & Daberechi Chikezie Ekwueme & Hakki Ciftci, 2023. "Assessing the Effects of Natural Resource Extraction on Carbon Emissions and Energy Consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa: A STIRPAT Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-23, June.
    8. Wang, Peng & Huang, Ren & Zhang, Sufang & Liu, Xiaoli, 2023. "Pathways of carbon emissions reduction under the water-energy constraint: A case study of Beijing in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    9. Junhui Huang & Sakdirat Kaewunruen, 2023. "Forecasting Energy Consumption of a Public Building Using Transformer and Support Vector Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Khalil Nimer & Muath Abdelqader & Cemil Kuzey & Ali Uyar, 2024. "Emission targeting and carbon emissions: The moderating effect of female directors," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 3480-3504, May.
    11. Yanyan Ke & Lu Zhou & Minglei Zhu & Yan Yang & Rui Fan & Xianrui Ma, 2023. "Scenario Prediction of Carbon Emission Peak of Urban Residential Buildings in China’s Coastal Region: A Case of Fujian Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, January.
    12. Jiang, Hong-Dian & Pradhan, Basanta K. & Dong, Kangyin & Yu, Yan-Yan & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2024. "An economy-wide impacts of multiple mitigation pathways toward carbon neutrality in China: A CGE-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    13. Zhenfen Wu & Zhe Wang & Qiliang Yang & Changyun Li, 2024. "Prediction Model of Electric Power Carbon Emissions Based on Extended System Dynamics," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-22, January.
    14. Lan, Bingying & Dong, Ke & Li, Li & Lei, Yalin & Wu, Sanmang & Hua, Ershi & Sun, Ruyi, 2023. "CO2 emission reduction pathways of iron and steel industry in Shandong based on CO2 emission equity and efficiency," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    15. Hui Li & Yanan Zheng & Guan Gong & Hongtao Guo, 2023. "A Simulation Study on Peak Carbon Emission of Public Buildings—In the Case of Henan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, May.
    16. Luigi Maffei & Antonio Ciervo & Achille Perrotta & Massimiliano Masullo & Antonio Rosato, 2023. "Innovative Energy-Efficient Prefabricated Movable Buildings for Smart/Co-Working: Performance Assessment upon Varying Building Configurations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-37, June.
    17. Yang, Yi & Yuan, Zhuqing & Yang, Shengnan, 2022. "Difference in the drivers of industrial carbon emission costs determines the diverse policies in middle-income regions: A case of northwestern China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    18. João Mello & Cristina de Lorenzo & Fco. Alberto Campos & José Villar, 2023. "Pricing and Simulating Energy Transactions in Energy Communities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-22, February.
    19. Zheng Jiang & Shuohua Zhang & Wei Li, 2022. "Exploration of Urban Emission Mitigation Pathway under the Carbon Neutrality Target: A Case Study of Beijing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-18, October.
    20. Yue Dou & Muhammad Shahbaz & Kangyin Dong & Xiucheng Dong, 2022. "How natural disasters affect carbon emissions: the global case," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(3), pages 1875-1901, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:22:p:15045-:d:972544. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.