Spatio-Temporal Coupling Relationship between Rural Population and Cultivated Land Changes at the County Level in Guangdong Province

Based on the data regarding the rural population and cultivated land at the county level in Guangdong Province in 2000, 2010 and 2020, this paper analyzes the changes in rural population and cultivated land area at the county level and their spatio-temporal coupling characteristics based on GIS technology and model methods such as the elastic coefficient, and reveals the transformation process of the rural “man–land” relationship in Guangdong Province. The results show that the rural population of Guangdong Province shows a continuous growth trend, and the cultivated land area and per capita cultivated land area show a trend of continuous reduction. From 2000 to 2010, the rural population grew by 1.37% annually, while the cultivated land area and per capita cultivated land area decreased by 0.09% and 1.28% annually, respectively. From 2010 to 2020, the rural population grew by 0.07% annually, while the cultivated land area and per capita cultivated land area decreased by 1.09% and 1.15% annually, respectively. The overall coupling type of rural population and cultivated land change in Guangdong Province presents a trend of mainly maladjusted types and gradually changing to coordinated types. From 2000 to 2010, 70.64% of the counties displayed maladjusted development types. From 2010 to 2020, the number of counties with maladjusted development types decreased, while the proportion of coordinated types increased. The natural environment, economic development level and governmental decision-making behaviors were all driving factors of coupled development of rural population and cultivated land, and the driving mechanisms of different factors have clear spatial differences in different regions of Guangdong Province. The governments and relevant departments should stick to the red line of cultivated protection, make intensive use of cultivated land and improve the livelihoods of farmers. Moreover, the Pearl River Delta, eastern Guangdong, western Guangdong and northern Guangdong should improve the cooperation mechanism for rural revitalization. The study is conducive to providing a scientific basis for rural population and cultivated land utilization management, rural revitalization and new rural construction, and promoting urban–rural integration development under the new situation.