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Analysis of Green Credit and the Ecological Welfare Performance Based on Empirical Models and ARIMA(2,3,2): Taking China as an Example

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  • Haoyang Lu

    (College of Bangor, Central South University of Forestry Technology, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Jing Tong

    (College of Bangor, Central South University of Forestry Technology, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Yajiao Tang

    (College of Economics, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China)

Abstract

We study the relationship between green credit and ecological welfare performance, green credit’s mechanism, and future trends of ecological welfare performance in China. We aim to determine whether the green credit policy has a positive or negative effect on ecological welfare performance and to give suggestions about green credit for emerging markets, with China as an example. These problems are evaluated with two empirical models by using quadratic and interaction terms, as well as a time series model, ARIMA(2,3,2). The results show that the relationship between green credit and ecological welfare performance is an inverted U shape, and ecological welfare performance peaks when loans approach 2934.2 billion yuan, which equals 441.7446 billion dollars, corresponding to loans between 2015 and 2016. In addition, national income and ecological footprint have a suppressive effect on the impact of green credit on ecological welfare performance, and lifespan can positively affect the mechanism. Moreover, the result of ARIMA(2,3,2) corresponds to previous results and indicates that the ecological welfare performance will fluctuate within a range if green credits continue to be issued.

Suggested Citation

  • Haoyang Lu & Jing Tong & Yajiao Tang, 2022. "Analysis of Green Credit and the Ecological Welfare Performance Based on Empirical Models and ARIMA(2,3,2): Taking China as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-15, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:19:p:11919-:d:921283
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    1. Jie Yang & Zhigang Li, 2024. "Improving Urban Ecological Welfare Performance: An ST-LMDI Approach to the Yangtze River Economic Belt," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, August.

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