Mining Subsidence Prediction Model and Parameters Inversion in Mountainous Areas

Coal mining in mountainous areas is general in China, especially in Shanxi Province. Under the influence of topography in mountainous areas, surface collapses and landslides caused by underground mining happen at a certain frequency and threaten human lives and assets. Accurate prediction of the movement and deformation of mining subsidence in mountainous areas facilitates the prevention and control of geological disasters. The probability integral method is an official prediction method for mining subsidence prediction in China, while it is lacking in the prediction accuracy in mountainous areas due to the inherent topography. Therefore, a practical prediction model based on slopes slip combined parameters optimization was proposed in this study. The slip subsidence and slip horizontal movement were deduced based on the probability integral method considering the topography (slope angle α < 30°) and geological conditions (loess covered) to build the prediction model. The dynamic step fruit fly optimization algorithm (DSFOA) was applied for parameters inversion about the probability integral method in the proposed prediction model, while the other parameters in the proposed model were determined by mechanics analysis based on the nature of losses. The determination of parameters is more efficient, objective and reasonable, so that the prediction accuracy can be improved. The measured data of the working panel 22,101 located in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province was verified by this practical model, and the result shows that the mean square error of subsidence and the horizontal movement was decreased to 71 mm and 276 mm, respectively, hence, the applicability of the proposed mining subsidence prediction model in mountainous areas is verified. This work will contribute to a comprehensive understanding on the law of surface movement and provide theoretical guidance for surface damage prevention and control in mountainous mining areas.