IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i12p7406-d840928.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Model-Based Assessment for the Ability of National Nature Reserves to Conserve the Picea Species in China under Predicted Climate Conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Qian Wang

    (College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, China
    State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, China)

  • Chun-Jing Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, China)

  • Ji-Zhong Wan

    (College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, China)

Abstract

Climate change has a profound impact on the conservation and management of the Picea species, and establishing more nature reserves would be an effective way to conserve wild species in general. Based on a novel computational method using ecological niche modeling to predict the potential geographical distribution of species and a spatial decision support system, the planning process could predict the future distribution of the Picea species and thus select appropriate nature reserves. In this research, we utilized systematic conservation planning to define priority conservation areas for the Picea species in China according to future climate predictions. We hypothesized that: (1) the distribution of the Picea species could be changed under predicted climate conditions in China; (2) the current national nature reserves had sufficient capacity to conserve Picea species under predicted climate conditions in China; and (3) there were still deficiencies in the planned conservation for the Picea species based on predicted climate predictions in China. The results of a spatial analysis showed that the predicted climate would have an impact on the area of distribution of the Picea species. Current nature reserves have a strong potential to conserve the Picea species. However, the conservation of the Picea species in the existing nature reserves was not adequate. There were still many Picea specimens outside the reserve that would be threatened. This research systematically improved the research on the Picea species, and it also scientifically identified the suitable growth and conserved areas of the Picea species in China to provide an empirical basis for the conservation and management of the Picea species.

Suggested Citation

  • Qian Wang & Chun-Jing Wang & Ji-Zhong Wan, 2022. "A Model-Based Assessment for the Ability of National Nature Reserves to Conserve the Picea Species in China under Predicted Climate Conditions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-13, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:12:p:7406-:d:840928
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/12/7406/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/12/7406/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zong-Shan Li & Qi-Bin Zhang & Keping Ma, 2012. "Tree-ring reconstruction of summer temperature for A.D. 1475–2003 in the central Hengduan Mountains, Northwestern Yunnan, China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 455-467, January.
    2. Chong Wang & Huilong Lin & Qisheng Feng & Cangyu Jin & Aocheng Cao & Lan He, 2017. "A New Strategy for the Prevention and Control of Eupatorium adenophorum under Climate Change in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-11, November.
    3. Terry L. Root & Jeff T. Price & Kimberly R. Hall & Stephen H. Schneider & Cynthia Rosenzweig & J. Alan Pounds, 2003. "Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 57-60, January.
    4. Erica Honeck & Atte Moilanen & Benjamin Guinaudeau & Nicolas Wyler & Martin A. Schlaepfer & Pascal Martin & Arthur Sanguet & Loreto Urbina & Bertrand von Arx & Joëlle Massy & Claude Fischer & Anthony , 2020. "Implementing Green Infrastructure for the Spatial Planning of Peri-Urban Areas in Geneva, Switzerland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, February.
    5. Mathey, Anne-Hélène & Krcmar, Emina & Dragicevic, Suzana & Vertinsky, Ilan, 2008. "An object-oriented cellular automata model for forest planning problems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 212(3), pages 359-371.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mayeul Dalleau & Stéphane Ciccione & Jeanne A Mortimer & Julie Garnier & Simon Benhamou & Jérôme Bourjea, 2012. "Nesting Phenology of Marine Turtles: Insights from a Regional Comparative Analysis on Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-13, October.
    2. Richard Tol, 2011. "Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 827-839, October.
    3. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    4. Fabina, Nicholas S. & Abbott, Karen C. & Gilman, R.Tucker, 2010. "Sensitivity of plant–pollinator–herbivore communities to changes in phenology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 453-458.
    5. Ye, Qing & Yang, Xiaoguang & Dai, Shuwei & Chen, Guangsheng & Li, Yong & Zhang, Caixia, 2015. "Effects of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, cropping systems and crop water requirements in southern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 35-44.
    6. John H Matthews & Bart AJ Wickel & Sarah Freeman, 2011. "Converging Currents in Climate-Relevant Conservation: Water, Infrastructure, and Institutions," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(9), pages 1-4, September.
    7. Brandt, Laura A. & Benscoter, Allison M. & Harvey, Rebecca & Speroterra, Carolina & Bucklin, David & Romañach, Stephanie S. & Watling, James I. & Mazzotti, Frank J., 2017. "Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 10-20.
    8. Rashwan, Sherif S. & Shaaban, Ahmed M. & Al-Suliman, Fahad, 2017. "A comparative study of a small-scale solar PV power plant in Saudi Arabia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 313-318.
    9. Gong, Jian-zhou & Liu, Yan-sui & Xia, Bei-cheng & Zhao, Guan-wei, 2009. "Urban ecological security assessment and forecasting, based on a cellular automata model: A case study of Guangzhou, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(24), pages 3612-3620.
    10. Elena Gorbenkova & Elena Shcherbina, 2020. "Historical-Genetic Features in Rural Settlement System: A Case Study from Mogilev District (Mogilev Oblast, Belarus)," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-17, May.
    11. Annie Paradis & Joe Elkinton & Katharine Hayhoe & John Buonaccorsi, 2008. "Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and future range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in eastern North America," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 541-554, June.
    12. Robert J. Knell & Stephen J. Thackeray, 2016. "Voltinism and resilience to climate-induced phenological mismatch," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 525-539, August.
    13. Rowell, Jonathan T., 2009. "The limitation of species range: A consequence of searching along resource gradients," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 216-227.
    14. Ramel, Cindy & Rey, Pierre-Louis & Fernandes, Rui & Vincent, Claire & Cardoso, Ana R. & Broennimann, Olivier & Pellissier, Loïc & Pradervand, Jean-Nicolas & Ursenbacher, Sylvain & Schmidt, Benedikt R., 2020. "Integrating ecosystem services within spatial biodiversity conservation prioritization in the Alps," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    15. Honeck, Erica & Gallagher, Louise & von Arx, Bertrand & Lehmann, Anthony & Wyler, Nicolas & Villarrubia, Olga & Guinaudeau, Benjamin & Schlaepfer, Martin A., 2021. "Integrating ecosystem services into policymaking – A case study on the use of boundary organizations," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    16. Lee Hannah & Marc Steele & Emily Fung & Pablo Imbach & Lorriane Flint & Alan Flint, 2017. "Climate change influences on pollinator, forest, and farm interactions across a climate gradient," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 63-75, March.
    17. Lian Sun & Yanpeng Cai & Wei Yang & Yujun Yi & Zhifeng Yang, 2019. "Climatic variations within the dry valleys in southwestern China and the influences of artificial reservoirs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 111-125, July.
    18. Zdeněk Laštůvka, 2009. "Climate change and its possible influence on the occurrence and importance of insect pests," Plant Protection Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 45(SpecialIs), pages 53-62.
    19. Wei Xu & Shuaimeng Zhu & Tianli Yang & Jimin Cheng & Jingwei Jin, 2022. "Maximum Entropy Niche-Based Modeling for Predicting the Potential Suitable Habitats of a Traditional Medicinal Plant ( Rheum nanum ) in Asia under Climate Change Conditions," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-14, April.
    20. Emiliano Mori & Andrea Sforzi & Giuseppe Bogliani & Pietro Milanesi, 2018. "Range expansion and redefinition of a crop-raiding rodent associated with global warming and temperature increase," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 319-331, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:12:p:7406-:d:840928. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.