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Modelling the Demand and Access of Mineral Resources in a Changing World

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Vidal

    (Institut de Sciences de la Terre (ISTerre), CNRS-University of Grenoble, 1381 Rue de la Piscine, 38041 Grenoble, France)

  • Hugo Le Boulzec

    (Institut de Sciences de la Terre (ISTerre), CNRS-University of Grenoble, 1381 Rue de la Piscine, 38041 Grenoble, France
    Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL), 1241 Rue des Résidences, 38400 Saint-Martin-d’Hères, France)

  • Baptiste Andrieu

    (Institut de Sciences de la Terre (ISTerre), CNRS-University of Grenoble, 1381 Rue de la Piscine, 38041 Grenoble, France
    The Shift Project, 16-18, Rue de Budapest, 75009 Paris, France)

  • François Verzier

    (Institut de Sciences de la Terre (ISTerre), CNRS-University of Grenoble, 1381 Rue de la Piscine, 38041 Grenoble, France)

Abstract

Humanity is using mineral resources at an unprecedented level and demand will continue to grow over the next few decades before stabilizing by the end of the century, due to the economic development of populated countries and the energy and digital transitions. The demand for raw materials must be estimated with a bottom-up and regionalised approach and the supply capacity with approaches coupling long-term prices with energy and production costs controlled by the quality of the resource and the rate of technological improvement that depends on thermodynamic limits. Such modelling provides arguments in favour of two classically opposed visions of the future of mineral resources: an unaffordable increase in costs and prices following the depletion of high quality deposits or, on the contrary, a favourable compensation by technological improvements. Both views are true, but not at the same time. After a period of energy and production cost gains, we now appear to be entering a pivotal period of long-term production cost increases as we approach the minimum practical energy and thermodynamic limits for many metals.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Vidal & Hugo Le Boulzec & Baptiste Andrieu & François Verzier, 2021. "Modelling the Demand and Access of Mineral Resources in a Changing World," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2021:i:1:p:11-:d:707273
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Le Boulzec, Hugo & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Verzier, François & Vidal, Olivier & Mathy, Sandrine, 2022. "Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: Overcoming a lack of available data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    2. Yu, Donglei & Wenhui, Xiong & Anser, Muhammad Khalid & Nassani, Abdelmohsen A. & Imran, Muhammad & Zaman, Khalid & Haffar, Mohamed, 2023. "Navigating the global mineral market: A study of resource wealth and the energy transition," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Raphael Boulat, 2024. "Working Paper: Conflicts and the New Scramble for African Resources -- A Shift-Share Approach," Papers 2408.08923, arXiv.org.
    4. Aramendia, Emmanuel & Brockway, Paul E. & Taylor, Peter G. & Norman, Jonathan B., 2024. "Exploring the effects of mineral depletion on renewable energy technologies net energy returns," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).

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