Analysis of the EU Secondary Biomass Availability and Conversion Processes to Produce Advanced Biofuels: Use of Existing Databases for Assessing a Metric Evaluation for the 2025 Perspective

Nowadays in Europe, the production of advanced biofuels represents a very important objective, given the strong interest in increasing sustainability throughout the transport sector. Production and availability of advanced biofuels are cited as a relevant issue in the most important international actions, such as the Sustainable Development Goals in UN Agenda 2030, EU RED II, and EU Mission Innovation 4, to cite a few of them. However, an important aspect to be considered is the prediction of feedstocks availability to produce advanced biofuel. The first aim of this paper is to assess the availability of European agricultural residues, forestry residues, and biogenic wastes in 2025. The data were collected through a deep review on open FAOSTAT and EUROSTAT databases and then elaborated by the authors. The analysis focuses on the fraction of feedstocks that can be used for advanced biofuels production, i.e., incorporating specific information on sustainable management practices, competitive uses, and environmental risks to preserve soil quality. An autoregressive model is developed to predict future availability, while also considering corrections due to the current pandemic. The results suggest that several European countries could produce enough sustainable advanced feedstocks to meet the European binding target. In particular, France, Germany, and Romania will have high production of agricultural feedstocks; while Austria, Finland, and Sweden will be rich of forestry residues; finally, Italy, France, and United Kingdom will have the highest availability of wastes. To complete the picture, a proper metric is introduced, aiming at generating a technology ranking of the examined alternative fuels, in terms of several relevant parameters such as biomass availability, Technology Readiness Level (TRL), quality of the biofuel, and costs. This analysis allows us to compare advanced biofuels and first-generation biofuels, whose utilization can impact the food market, while also contributing to the increase in the indirect land use change (ILUC). Although the first-generation biofuels remain the most common choice, the renewable (or green) diesel, pyrolysis bio-oil, green jet fuel, and the second-generation bioethanol are promising for different applications in the transport sector. Hydrotreated Vegetable Oils (HVO), Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), Anaerobic Digestion (AD), and transesterification from vegetable oil represent the most widespread and mature technologies. Thus, it seems mandatory that the transport sector will rely more and more on such fuels in the future. For such reason, a specific support for advanced biomass collection, as well as specific programs for conversion technologies development, are strongly suggested.