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Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Water Productivity of Maize in the Semi-Arid Environment of Punjab, Pakistan

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  • Muhammad Mohsin Waqas

    (Water Management and Agricultural Mechanization Research Center, Centre for Climate Change and Hydrological Modeling Studies, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Khwaja Fareed University of Engineering and Information Technology, Rahim Yar Khan 64200, Pakistan
    Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan)

  • Syed Hamid Hussain Shah

    (Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan)

  • Usman Khalid Awan

    (International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Lahore 35700, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Waseem

    (Faculty of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, University of Rostock, 18059 Rostock, Germany)

  • Ishfaq Ahmad

    (Center for Climate Research and Development, COMSAT University, Islamabad 45550, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Fahad

    (Department of Agronomy, PMAS-Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi 46300, Pakistan)

  • Yasir Niaz

    (Water Management and Agricultural Mechanization Research Center, Centre for Climate Change and Hydrological Modeling Studies, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Khwaja Fareed University of Engineering and Information Technology, Rahim Yar Khan 64200, Pakistan)

  • Sikandar Ali

    (Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan)

Abstract

Impact assessments on climate change are essential for the evaluation and management of irrigation water in farming practices in semi-arid environments. This study was conducted to evaluate climate change impacts on water productivity of maize in farming practices in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) system. Two fields of maize were selected and monitored to calibrate and validate the model. A water productivity analysis was performed using the Soil–Water–Atmosphere–Plant (SWAP) model. Baseline climate data (1980–2010) for the study site were acquired from the weather observatory of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). Future climate change data were acquired from the Hadley Climate model version 3 (HadCM3). Statistical downscaling was performed using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) for the A2 and B2 scenarios of HadCM3. The water productivity assessment was performed for the midcentury (2040–2069) scenario. The maximum increase in the average maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) was found in the month of July under the A2 and B2 scenarios. The scenarios show a projected increase of 2.8 °C for Tmax and 3.2 °C for Tmin under A2 as well as 2.7 °C for Tmax and 3.2 °C for Tmin under B2 for the midcentury. Similarly, climate change scenarios showed that temperature is projected to decrease, with the average minimum and maximum temperatures of 7.4 and 6.4 °C under the A2 scenario and 7.7 and 6.8 °C under the B2 scenario in the middle of the century, respectively. However, the highest precipitation will decrease by 56 mm under the A2 and B2 scenarios in the middle of the century for the month of September. The input and output data of the SWAP model were processed in R programming for the easy working of the model. The negative impact of climate change was found under the A2 and B2 scenarios during the midcentury. The maximum decreases in Potential Water Productivity (WPET) and Actual Water Productivity (WPAI) from the baseline period to the midcentury scenario of 1.1 to 0.85 kgm −3 and 0.7 to 0.56 kgm −3 were found under the B2 scenario. Evaluation of irrigation practices directs the water managers in making suitable water management decisions for the improvement of water productivity in the changing climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Mohsin Waqas & Syed Hamid Hussain Shah & Usman Khalid Awan & Muhammad Waseem & Ishfaq Ahmad & Muhammad Fahad & Yasir Niaz & Sikandar Ali, 2020. "Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Water Productivity of Maize in the Semi-Arid Environment of Punjab, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-14, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:9:p:3905-:d:356344
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. David B. Lobell & Graeme L. Hammer & Greg McLean & Carlos Messina & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 497-501, May.
    4. Molden, David J., 1997. "Accounting for water use and productivity," IWMI Books, International Water Management Institute, number 113623.
    5. Singh, R. & van Dam, J.C. & Feddes, R.A., 2006. "Water productivity analysis of irrigated crops in Sirsa district, India," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 253-278, April.
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