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The Fertilizer Industry in Brazil and the Assurance of Inputs for Biofuels Production: Prospective Scenarios after COVID-19

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  • Pedro Igor Veillard Farias

    (Escola de Química, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro 21949-900, Brazil
    Instituto Nacional de Propriedade Industrial (INPI), Rio de Janeiro 20090-910, Brazil)

  • Estevão Freire

    (Escola de Química, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro 21949-900, Brazil)

  • Armando Lucas Cherem da Cunha

    (Escola de Química, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro 21949-900, Brazil)

  • Raul José dos Santos Grumbach

    (Brainstorming Assessoria de Planejamento e Inf., Rio de Janeiro 226310-00, Brazil)

  • Adelaide Maria de Souza Antunes

    (Escola de Química, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro 21949-900, Brazil
    Instituto Nacional de Propriedade Industrial (INPI), Rio de Janeiro 20090-910, Brazil)

Abstract

Fertilizers are essential inputs for the agribusiness chain—they increase the productivity on available arable land and help to avoid changes in land use. Currently, Brazil is one of the largest consumers of fertilizers in the world but its imports of NPK fertilizers, as a percentage of its total consumption, have risen from 32% in 1988 to 77% in 2018. Biofuels are relevant in the transport sector and the Brazilian government, after the Paris Agreement, created the National Biofuels Policy (Renovabio), which has as one of its goals to raise the participation of biofuels in the transport sector to 28.6% by 2028. Soy, corn, and sugarcane (biofuels raw material) currently account for more than 70% of the consumption of NPK fertilizers in the country. Due to several reasons, in the last 10 years many local projects designed to fill the supply gap for fertilizers in Brazil have not been successful. The recent COVID-19 pandemic has raised questions about the reliability of fertilizer supply in global value chains. In this context, is Brazil’s long-term biofuel market at risk after COVID-19? A total of 38 experts were consulted and four reference scenarios were developed. The article concluded that the Brazilian fertilizer industry must be prepared for a scenario of limited increase in demand on a global scale—strategic alliances may be forged to maintain existing installed capacity. Should the Brazilian government fail to provide any stimulus for the country’s fertilizer industry, it is likely that by 2035, Brazil’s biofuel industry sector would be overexposed to price volatility and availability on the global fertilizer market.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Igor Veillard Farias & Estevão Freire & Armando Lucas Cherem da Cunha & Raul José dos Santos Grumbach & Adelaide Maria de Souza Antunes, 2020. "The Fertilizer Industry in Brazil and the Assurance of Inputs for Biofuels Production: Prospective Scenarios after COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:21:p:8889-:d:435124
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Souza, Lorena Mendes & Mendes, Pietro A.S. & Aranda, Donato A.G., 2018. "Assessing the current scenario of the Brazilian biojet market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 426-438.
    2. Anne Marchais-Roubelat & Fabrice Roubelat, 2011. "The Delphi method as a ritual: Inquiring the Delphic Oracle," Post-Print hal-02148881, HAL.
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    1. Minh-Tai Le & Nhat-Luong Nhieu, 2022. "A Novel Multi-Criteria Assessment Approach for Post-COVID-19 Production Strategies in Vietnam Manufacturing Industry: OPA–Fuzzy EDAS Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-25, April.
    2. Mańkowski Cezary & Szmeter-Jarosz Agnieszka & Jezierski Andrzej, 2022. "Managing Supply Chains During the Covid-19 Pandemic," Journal of Management and Business Administration. Central Europe, Sciendo, vol. 30(4), pages 90-119, November.
    3. Nocera Alves Junior, Paulo & Costa Melo, Isotilia & de Moraes Santos, Rodrigo & da Rocha, Fernando Vinícius & Caixeta-Filho, José Vicente, 2022. "How did COVID-19 affect green-fuel supply chain? - A performance analysis of Brazilian ethanol sector," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

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