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Methodological Study of Evaluating Future Lightweight Vehicle Scenarios and CO 2 Reduction Based on Life Cycle Assessment

Author

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  • Shinichirou Morimoto

    (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8569, Japan)

  • Yanfei Cheng

    (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8569, Japan)

  • Norio Mizukoshi

    (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8569, Japan)

  • Kiyotaka Tahara

    (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8569, Japan)

Abstract

Changing the material composition of vehicles from steel to alternative materials, such as aluminum and magnesium, is being explored to reduce the weight of vehicles. Further, this change could lead to a significant reduction in vehicular CO 2 emissions. To analyze this relationship and estimate the CO 2 reduction effect over the life cycle, it is important to create potential scenarios by considering the logistics balance from material production to recycling. Therefore, this study aims to quantitatively predict the amount of renewable energy employed in vehicles, along with the various alternative materials used; further, the demand for aluminum and magnesium is predicted. These predictions are made via several multivariate analyses and a dynamic substance flow analysis (SFA) to explore future scenarios. It is estimated that 65% of rolled aluminum can be obtained from a secondary alloy via closed-loop recycling of rolled products in a sustainable development scenario. However, 510 kt/year of end of life scrap aluminum must be imported from overseas to provide 90% of the secondary alloy required in cast and die cast parts. The overall CO 2 reduction amount is predicted to be 3920 kt/year in the 2040 sustainable development scenario. This study successfully demonstrated that combining SFA and life cycle assessment is efficient for quantitatively estimating the synergies of renewable energy implementation, vehicular weight reduction, and recycling.

Suggested Citation

  • Shinichirou Morimoto & Yanfei Cheng & Norio Mizukoshi & Kiyotaka Tahara, 2020. "Methodological Study of Evaluating Future Lightweight Vehicle Scenarios and CO 2 Reduction Based on Life Cycle Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-16, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:14:p:5713-:d:385165
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thiel, Christian & Perujo, Adolfo & Mercier, Arnaud, 2010. "Cost and CO2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7142-7151, November.
    2. González Palencia, Juan C. & Furubayashi, Takaaki & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2012. "Energy use and CO2 emissions reduction potential in passenger car fleet using zero emission vehicles and lightweight materials," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 548-565.
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    Cited by:

    1. Moritz Ostermann & Julian Grenz & Marcel Triebus & Felipe Cerdas & Thorsten Marten & Thomas Tröster & Christoph Herrmann, 2023. "Integrating Prospective Scenarios in Life Cycle Engineering: Case Study of Lightweight Structures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-24, April.

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