IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i4p1176-d208451.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the Driving Forces and Reduction Potential of Industrial Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions during 2001–2030: A Case Study for Henan Province, China

Author

Listed:
  • Lei Liu

    (College of Chemistry and Molecular Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
    Research Institute of Environmental Science, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

  • Ke Wang

    (College of Chemistry and Molecular Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
    Research Institute of Environmental Science, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

  • Shanshan Wang

    (College of Chemistry and Molecular Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
    Research Institute of Environmental Science, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

  • Ruiqin Zhang

    (College of Chemistry and Molecular Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
    Research Institute of Environmental Science, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

  • Xiaoyan Tang

    (Research Institute of Environmental Science, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

Abstract

In China, the industrial sector is the main contributor to economic development and CO 2 emissions, especially for the developing regional provinces. This study employs the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach to decompose industrial energy-related CO 2 emission into eight factors during 2001–2015 for Henan Province. Furthermore, the future CO 2 emissions under different scenarios (Business as Usual (BAU), Efficiency Improvement (EI), Structural Optimization (SO), R&D Input (RD), and Comprehensive Policy (CP) scenarios) over 2016–2030 are projected. The results indicate that among these factors, the economic output, R&D intensity, investment intensity, and energy structure are the drivers for increasing CO 2 emissions over the entire period, with the contribution of 293, 83, 80, and 1% of the total CO 2 emissions changes, respectively. Conversely, the energy intensity, R&D efficiency, and industrial internal structure can decrease CO 2 emissions with contributions of –86, –163, and –108% to the changes, respectively. Under the five scenarios, CO 2 emissions in 2030 will reach 1222, 1079, 793, 987, and 638 Mt with an annual growth rate of 4.7%, 3.8%, 1.8%, 3.3%, and 0.4%, respectively. In particular, the CO 2 emission peak for SO and CP scenarios is observed before 2030. Finally, some policy implications are suggested to further mitigate industrial emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lei Liu & Ke Wang & Shanshan Wang & Ruiqin Zhang & Xiaoyan Tang, 2019. "Exploring the Driving Forces and Reduction Potential of Industrial Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions during 2001–2030: A Case Study for Henan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:4:p:1176-:d:208451
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/4/1176/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/4/1176/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
    2. Yu, Shiwei & Wei, Yi-Ming & Guo, Haixiang & Ding, Liping, 2014. "Carbon emission coefficient measurement of the coal-to-power energy chain in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 290-300.
    3. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Da, Ya-Bin, 2015. "The decomposition of energy-related carbon emission and its decoupling with economic growth in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1255-1266.
    4. Mi, Zhifu & Zhang, Yunkun & Guan, Dabo & Shan, Yuli & Liu, Zhu & Cong, Ronggang & Yuan, Xiao-Chen & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Consumption-based emission accounting for Chinese cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1073-1081.
    5. Chang, Yih F & Lin, Sue J, 1998. "Structural decomposition of industrial CO2 emission in Taiwan: an input-output approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 5-12, January.
    6. de Freitas, Luciano Charlita & Kaneko, Shinji, 2011. "Decomposition of CO2 emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil: Challenges and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1495-1504, March.
    7. Hammond, G.P. & Norman, J.B., 2012. "Decomposition analysis of energy-related carbon emissions from UK manufacturing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 220-227.
    8. Liu, Zhu, 2016. "National carbon emissions from the industry process: Production of glass, soda ash, ammonia, calcium carbide and alumina," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 239-244.
    9. Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Jefferson, Gary H. & Jingkui, Ma & Jianyi, Xu, 2006. "Technology development and energy productivity in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 690-705, November.
    10. Zhu Liu & Dabo Guan & Douglas Crawford-Brown & Qiang Zhang & Kebin He & Jianguo Liu, 2013. "A low-carbon road map for China," Nature, Nature, vol. 500(7461), pages 143-145, August.
    11. Zhifu Mi & Jing Meng & Dabo Guan & Yuli Shan & Malin Song & Yi-Ming Wei & Zhu Liu & Klaus Hubacek, 2017. "Chinese CO2 emission flows have reversed since the global financial crisis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Zhu, Zhi-Shuang & Liao, Hua & Cao, Huai-Shu & Wang, Lu & Wei, Yi-Ming & Yan, Jinyue, 2014. "The differences of carbon intensity reduction rate across 89 countries in recent three decades," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 808-815.
    13. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2017. "Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emissions in China: An empirical analysis based on provincial panel data of three sectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 772-787.
    14. Lin, Boqiang & Zhang, Zihan, 2016. "Carbon emissions in China׳s cement industry: A sector and policy analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1387-1394.
    15. Geng, Yong & Zhao, Hongyan & Liu, Zhu & Xue, Bing & Fujita, Tsuyoshi & Xi, Fengming, 2013. "Exploring driving factors of energy-related CO2 emissions in Chinese provinces: A case of Liaoning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 820-826.
    16. Liu, Lan-Cui & Fan, Ying & Wu, Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "Using LMDI method to analyze the change of China's industrial CO2 emissions from final fuel use: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5892-5900, November.
    17. Wang, Yafei & Zhao, Hongyan & Li, Liying & Liu, Zhu & Liang, Sai, 2013. "Carbon dioxide emission drivers for a typical metropolis using input–output structural decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 312-318.
    18. Ren, Shenggang & Fu, Xiang & Chen, XiaoHong, 2012. "Regional variation of energy-related industrial CO2 emissions mitigation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1134-1145.
    19. Ang, B. W., 2005. "The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 867-871, May.
    20. Xie, Xuan & Shao, Shuai & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Exploring the driving forces and mitigation pathways of CO2 emissions in China’s petroleum refining and coking industry: 1995–2031," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1004-1015.
    21. Jung, Seok & An, Kyoung-Jin & Dodbiba, Gjergj & Fujita, Toyohisa, 2012. "Regional energy-related carbon emission characteristics and potential mitigation in eco-industrial parks in South Korea: Logarithmic mean Divisia index analysis based on the Kaya identity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 231-241.
    22. Hatzigeorgiou, Emmanouil & Polatidis, Heracles & Haralambopoulos, Dias, 2008. "CO2 emissions in Greece for 1990–2002: A decomposition analysis and comparison of results using the Arithmetic Mean Divisia Index and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index techniques," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 492-499.
    23. Shao, Shuai & Yang, Lili & Gan, Chunhui & Cao, Jianhua & Geng, Yong & Guan, Dabo, 2016. "Using an extended LMDI model to explore techno-economic drivers of energy-related industrial CO2 emission changes: A case study for Shanghai (China)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 516-536.
    24. Fernández González, P. & Landajo, M. & Presno, M.J., 2014. "Multilevel LMDI decomposition of changes in aggregate energy consumption. A cross country analysis in the EU-27," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 576-584.
    25. Lei Liu & Shanshan Wang & Ke Wang & Ruiqin Zhang & Xiaoyan Tang, 2016. "LMDI decomposition analysis of industry carbon emissions in Henan Province, China: comparison between different 5-year plans," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 997-1014, January.
    26. Feng, Taiwen & Sun, Linyan & Zhang, Ying, 2009. "The relationship between energy consumption structure, economic structure and energy intensity in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5475-5483, December.
    27. Zhang, Ming & Li, Huanan & Zhou, Min & Mu, Hailin, 2011. "Decomposition analysis of energy consumption in Chinese transportation sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(6), pages 2279-2285, June.
    28. Lin, Boqiang & Ouyang, Xiaoling, 2014. "Analysis of energy-related CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions and reduction potential in the Chinese non-metallic mineral products industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 688-697.
    29. Guo, Zhengquan & Zhang, Xingping & Zheng, Yuhua & Rao, Rao, 2014. "Exploring the impacts of a carbon tax on the Chinese economy using a CGE model with a detailed disaggregation of energy sectors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 455-462.
    30. Lei Liu & Shanshan Wang & Ke Wang & Ruiqin Zhang & Xiaoyan Tang, 2016. "LMDI decomposition analysis of industry carbon emissions in Henan Province, China: comparison between different 5-year plans," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 997-1014, January.
    31. Wang, S.S. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Wang, Q.W., 2011. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China: A panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4870-4875, September.
    32. Zhang, Ming & Song, Yan & Li, Peng & Li, Huanan, 2016. "Study on affecting factors of residential energy consumption in urban and rural Jiangsu," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 330-337.
    33. Lin, Boqiang & Long, Houyin, 2016. "Emissions reduction in China׳s chemical industry – Based on LMDI," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1348-1355.
    34. Zhao, Min & Tan, Lirong & Zhang, Weiguo & Ji, Minhe & Liu, Yuan & Yu, Lizhong, 2010. "Decomposing the influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions in Shanghai using the LMDI method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 2505-2510.
    35. Tsung-Yung Chiu & Shang-Lien Lo & Yung-Yin Tsai, 2012. "Establishing an Integration-Energy-Practice Model for Improving Energy Performance Indicators in ISO 50001 Energy Management Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(12), pages 1-16, December.
    36. Xu, Shi-Chun & He, Zheng-Xia & Long, Ru-Yin, 2014. "Factors that influence carbon emissions due to energy consumption in China: Decomposition analysis using LMDI," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 182-193.
    37. Chong, ChinHao & Liu, Pei & Ma, Linwei & Li, Zheng & Ni, Weidou & Li, Xu & Song, Shizhong, 2017. "LMDI decomposition of energy consumption in Guangdong Province, China, based on an energy allocation diagram," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 525-544.
    38. Ang, B.W. & Liu, Na, 2007. "Handling zero values in the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 238-246, January.
    39. Zhang, Youguo, 2009. "Structural decomposition analysis of sources of decarbonizing economic development in China; 1992-2006," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(8-9), pages 2399-2405, June.
    40. Shiyi Chen, 2011. "The Abatement of Carbon Dioxide Intensity in China: Factors Decomposition and Policy Implications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34, pages 1148-1167, July.
    41. Tian, Xin & Chang, Miao & Tanikawa, Hiroki & Shi, Feng & Imura, Hidefumi, 2013. "Structural decomposition analysis of the carbonization process in Beijing: A regional explanation of rapid increasing carbon dioxide emission in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 279-286.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhiyuan Duan & Xian’en Wang & Xize Dong & Haiyan Duan & Junnian Song, 2020. "Peaking Industrial Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions in Typical Transformation Region: Paths and Mechanism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2018. "Decomposing the change in energy consumption in China's nonferrous metal industry: An empirical analysis based on the LMDI method," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2652-2663.
    2. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2018. "Using an extended logarithmic mean Divisia index approach to assess the roles of economic factors on industrial CO2 emissions of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 101-114.
    3. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2017. "Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emissions in China: An empirical analysis based on provincial panel data of three sectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 772-787.
    4. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2017. "Analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions in China’s mining industry: Evidence and policy implications," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 77-87.
    5. Yang Yu & Qiuyue Kong, 2017. "Analysis on the influencing factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption in China based on LMDI method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1691-1707, September.
    6. Linwei Ma & Chinhao Chong & Xi Zhang & Pei Liu & Weiqi Li & Zheng Li & Weidou Ni, 2018. "LMDI Decomposition of Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Based on Energy and CO 2 Allocation Sankey Diagrams: The Method and an Application to China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-37, January.
    7. Wang, Zhiping & Feng, Chao & Chen, Jinyu & Huang, Jianbai, 2017. "The driving forces of material use in China: An index decomposition analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 336-348.
    8. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2018. "Investigating the drivers of energy-related CO2 emissions in China’s industrial sector: From regional and provincial perspectives," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 136-147.
    9. Xianrui Liao & Wei Yang & Yichen Wang & Junnian Song, 2019. "Uncovering Variations, Determinants, and Disparities of Multisector-Level Final Energy Use of Industries Across Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, March.
    10. Feng, Chao & Huang, Jian-Bai & Wang, Miao, 2018. "The driving forces and potential mitigation of energy-related CO2 emissions in China's metal industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 487-494.
    11. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Xie, Dejun & Li, Ji & Miao, Lixin & Yang, Peng, 2017. "Sector decomposition of China’s national economic carbon emissions and its policy implication for national ETS development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 855-867.
    12. Boqiang Lin, & Wang, Miao, 2019. "Possibilities of decoupling for China’s energy consumption from economic growth: A temporal-spatial analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 951-960.
    13. Zhang, Wei & Li, Ke & Zhou, Dequn & Zhang, Wenrui & Gao, Hui, 2016. "Decomposition of intensity of energy-related CO2 emission in Chinese provinces using the LMDI method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 369-381.
    14. Liang, Wei & Gan, Ting & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Dynamic evolution of characteristics and decomposition of factors influencing industrial carbon dioxide emissions in China: 1991–2015," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 93-106.
    15. Shao, Shuai & Yang, Lili & Gan, Chunhui & Cao, Jianhua & Geng, Yong & Guan, Dabo, 2016. "Using an extended LMDI model to explore techno-economic drivers of energy-related industrial CO2 emission changes: A case study for Shanghai (China)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 516-536.
    16. Wang, Qunwei & Wang, Yizhong & Zhou, P. & Wei, Hongye, 2017. "Whole process decomposition of energy-related SO2 in Jiangsu Province, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 679-687.
    17. Wang, Qunwei & Chiu, Yung-Ho & Chiu, Ching-Ren, 2015. "Driving factors behind carbon dioxide emissions in China: A modified production-theoretical decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 252-260.
    18. Moutinho, Victor & Madaleno, Mara & Inglesi-Lotz, Roula & Dogan, Eyup, 2018. "Factors affecting CO2 emissions in top countries on renewable energies: A LMDI decomposition application," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 605-622.
    19. Zhe Wang & Lin Zhao & Guozhu Mao & Ben Wu, 2015. "Factor Decomposition Analysis of Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions in Tianjin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-16, July.
    20. Jian Liu & Qingshan Yang & Yu Zhang & Wen Sun & Yiming Xu, 2019. "Analysis of CO 2 Emissions in China’s Manufacturing Industry Based on Extended Logarithmic Mean Division Index Decomposition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:4:p:1176-:d:208451. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.