IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i10p2742-d230929.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Shrinkage in Tokyo’s Central Business District: Large-Scale Redevelopment in the Spatially Shrinking Office Market

Author

Listed:
  • Kohei Kawai

    (Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5, Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba 277-8568, Japan)

  • Masatomo Suzuki

    (Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5, Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba 277-8568, Japan)

  • Chihiro Shimizu

    (Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5, Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba 277-8568, Japan)

Abstract

Although metropolises continue to grow worldwide, they face the risk of shrinkage. This study seeks to capture and contextualize the “shrinkage” of the office market in Tokyo, a city that is one of the largest in the world but whose labor force has been shrinking since 1995. Employing unique property-level data on office building performance and use, this study quantifies the geographical distribution of office supply over time and shows that the geographical area of office supply is shrinking from the fringes, in line with the large-scale redevelopment of the central area since the collapse of the asset bubble in the early 1990s. As a result, analyses of changes in the vacancy rate and rent premium (from hedonic regressions) suggest that old office properties in the suburbs have recently faced more vacancies and lower rent premiums, even during the upturn peak of around 2007. This evidence suggests that (i) the concept of shrinking cities is also applicable in a spatial context, even for service sector workplaces in a nation’s central metropolis, and that (ii) allowing large-scale redevelopment in the central area while the economy remains powerful can transform the metropolis into a more compact form, which may be desirable in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Kohei Kawai & Masatomo Suzuki & Chihiro Shimizu, 2019. "Shrinkage in Tokyo’s Central Business District: Large-Scale Redevelopment in the Spatially Shrinking Office Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:10:p:2742-:d:230929
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/10/2742/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/10/2742/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Asato Saito, 2003. "Global City Formation in a Capitalist Developmental State: Tokyo and the Waterfront Sub-centre Project," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(2), pages 283-308, February.
    2. Amnon Frenkel, 2007. "Spatial Distribution of High-rise Buildings within Urban Areas: The Case of the Tel-Aviv Metropolitan Region," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 44(10), pages 1973-1996, September.
    3. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2005. "Urban Decline and Durable Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 345-375, April.
    4. Chihiro Shimizu & Hideoki Takatsuji & Hiroya Ono & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura, 2010. "Structural and temporal changes in the housing market and hedonic housing price indices," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(4), pages 351-368, October.
    5. Chihiro Shimizu & Yasushi Asami & Koji Karato, 2010. "Estimation Of Redevelopment Probability Using Panel Data-Asset Bubble Burst And Office Market In Tokyo," ERES eres2010_029, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    6. Masatomo Suzuki & Yasushi Asami, 2019. "Shrinking metropolitan area: Costly homeownership and slow spatial shrinkage," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 56(6), pages 1113-1128, May.
    7. Paul Waley, 2007. "Tokyo-as-World-City: Reassessing the Role of Capital and the State in Urban Restructuring," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 44(8), pages 1465-1490, July.
    8. Chihiro Shimizu & Kiyohiko Nishimura, 2007. "Pricing Structure in Tokyo Metropolitan Land Markets and its Structural Changes: Pre-bubble, Bubble, and Post-bubble Periods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 475-496, November.
    9. Thorsten Wiechmann & Karina M. Pallagst, 2012. "Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA: A Comparison of Transformation Patterns and Local Strategies," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 261-280, March.
    10. Sato, Yasuhiro & Yamamoto, Kazuhiro, 2005. "Population concentration, urbanization, and demographic transition," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 45-61, July.
    11. Chihiro Shimizu & Koji Karato & Yasushi Asami, 2010. "Estimation of redevelopment probability using panel data," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 28(4), pages 285-300, July.
    12. repec:arz:wpaper:eres2010-029 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Cheshire, Paul & Hilber, Christian A.L. & Koster, Hans R.A., 2018. "Empty homes, longer commutes: The unintended consequences of more restrictive local planning," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 126-151.
    14. S S Chen & Yue Yan & Qun Gao & Dene Liu, 2015. "Quantifying Circular Urban Expansion Patterns of Compact Chinese Cities: The Case of Yangtze River Delta, China," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 42(2), pages 279-299, April.
    15. Kuniko Fujita, 2011. "Financial Crises, Japan's State Regime Shift, and Tokyo's Urban Policy," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 43(2), pages 307-327, February.
    16. André Sorensen & Junichiro Okata & Sayaka Fujii, 2010. "Urban Renaissance as Intensification: Building Regulation and the Rescaling of Place Governance in Tokyo’s High-rise Manshon Boom," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 47(3), pages 556-583, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kazushi Matsuo & Morito Tsutsumi & Toyokazu Imazeki, 2023. "Asymmetric Dynamics of Rent and Vacancy Rates in the Tokyo Office Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(1), pages 1-41.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xu, Hangtian, 2020. "Land Price Fluctuations, Commercial-Residential Segregation, and Gentrification," MPRA Paper 98844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Xu, Hangtian, 2019. "The burst of the real estate bubble as a promoter of gentrification in Tokyo and Osaka, 1980–2017," MPRA Paper 96803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Masatomo Suzuki & Yasushi Asami, 2020. "Shrinking housing market, long-term vacancy, and withdrawal from housing market," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 619-638, October.
    4. Hangtian Xu, 2023. "Commercial‐to‐residential land‐use conversion and residential recentralization in large cities," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(1), pages 306-338, February.
    5. Masatomo Suzuki & Yasushi Asami, 2019. "Shrinking metropolitan area: Costly homeownership and slow spatial shrinkage," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 56(6), pages 1113-1128, May.
    6. Sadayuki, Taisuke, 2018. "Measuring the spatial effect of multiple sites: An application to housing rent and public transportation in Tokyo, Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 155-173.
    7. Masaaki Uto & Sophie Buhnik & Yuki Okazawa, 2024. "How Are Tier 2 Metropolises Affected by Housing Asset Value Deflation in the Depopulation Era? A Comparison between the Tokyo and Kansai Metropolitan Areas," Post-Print hal-04533540, HAL.
    8. Peter Newman & Andy Thornley, 2011. "Planning for World Cities: Shifting Agendas and Differing Politics," Chapters, in: Ben Derudder & Michael Hoyler & Peter J. Taylor & Frank Witlox (ed.), International Handbook of Globalization and World Cities, chapter 29, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Suzuki, Masatomo & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2024. "Obsolete housing equipment, weak renovation, and rapid depreciation of Japanese condominiums," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Masaaki Uto & Sophie Buhnik & Yuki Okazawa, 2024. "How Are Tier 2 Metropolises Affected by Housing Asset Value Deflation in the Depopulation Era? A Comparison between the Tokyo and Kansai Metropolitan Areas," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, March.
    11. Zezhou Wu & Danting Zhang & Shenghan Li & Jianbo Fei & Changhong Chen & Bin Tian & Maxwell Fordjour Antwi-Afari, 2022. "Visualizing and Understanding Shrinking Cities and Towns (SCT) Research: A Network Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-14, September.
    12. Suzuki, Masatomo & Asami, Yasushi & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2021. "Housing rent rigidity under downward pressure: Unit-level longitudinal evidence from Tokyo," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    13. David Ley & Sin Yih Teo, 2014. "Gentrification in Hong Kong? Epistemology vs. Ontology," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1286-1303, July.
    14. Taisuke Sadayuki, 2017. "Measuring the spatial effect of multiple sites," RIEEM Discussion Paper Series 1703, Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University.
    15. Murakami, Jin, 2010. "The Transit-Oriented Global Centers for Competitiveness and Livability: State Strategies and Market Responses in Asia," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt19034785, University of California Transportation Center.
    16. Shimizu Chihiro & Nishimura Kiyohiko G. & Watanabe Tsutomu, 2010. "Housing Prices in Tokyo: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat Sales Measures," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(6), pages 792-813, December.
    17. Murakami, Jin, 2010. "The Transit-Oriented Global Centers for Competitiveness and Livability: State Strategies and Market Responses in Asia," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt44g9t8mj, University of California Transportation Center.
    18. Takafumi Miura & Yasushi Asami, 2012. "Hedonic Analysis for the Estimation of Condominium Rent Utilizing Web Information," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 39(6), pages 1049-1068, December.
    19. Mace, Alan & Holman, Nancy & Paccoud, Antoine & Sundaresan, Jayaraj, 2015. "Coordinating density; working through conviction, suspicion and pragmatism," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 56768, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Diewert, Erwin & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2015. "Residential Property Price Indices For Tokyo," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1659-1714, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:10:p:2742-:d:230929. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.