Why the Uncertain Term Occurs in the Farmland Lease Market: Evidence from Rural China

Urbanization and aging of the agricultural population lead to the insufficient supply of agricultural labor and land being idle in rural China, calling for the farmland lease market to maintain sustainable and efficient use of farmland. However, rural households tend to agree on an uncertain term for farmland leasing in/out, which leads to low efficiency and land loss in agriculture. Therefore, using the survey data collected from 2704 rural households and a logistic regression model, we examine the effects of risk faced by the rural households on the likelihood of the uncertain term for farmland leasing. Results reveal that a large share of labor with low education and high income increase the likelihood of an uncertain term for farmland leasing out activities, while a high disaster frequency, a high education of household and a high share of agricultural income increase the probability of an uncertain term for farmland leasing in activities. Additionally, leasing farmland to/from relatives or neighbors, informal contracts, low rent and the lack of pension insurance also increase the likelihood of the uncertain term for farmland leasing out/in activities. Findings suggest that more attention should be paid to education, agricultural insurance and social security system in rural areas.