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The Effects of an Energy Use Paradigm Shift on Carbon Emissions: A Simulation Study

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  • Yuzhe Wu

    (Department of Land Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

  • Jiaojiao Luo

    (Department of Land Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
    Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA)

  • Liyin Shen

    (School of Construction Management and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China)

  • Martin Skitmore

    (School of Civil Engineering and Built Environment, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Brisbane 4000, Australia)

Abstract

Carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries are closely tied to their economy and play a crucial role in the world’s future emissions. In this paper, we put forward an alternative energy use paradigm shift of low-carbon emissions from operational, governance, institutional, and cultural viewpoints (OGIC). An urbanization factor is introduced into the Kaya identity, and three simulations are conducted to forecast the carbon footprint and to explore the effects of the energy use paradigm shift policy. The simulation results show that, in the context of the energy use paradigm shift, the years 2015 and 2024 are the two inflection points that separate the carbon footprint into three periods of extensive consumption (2000–2015), early energy transition (2016–2023), and late energy transition (2024–2030). Overall, the peak carbon emission value is forecasted to appear during the third stage. The findings are expected to demonstrate the effects of the energy use paradigm shift on carbon emissions and assist policy makers formulate a scientific policy framework for low carbon development.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuzhe Wu & Jiaojiao Luo & Liyin Shen & Martin Skitmore, 2018. "The Effects of an Energy Use Paradigm Shift on Carbon Emissions: A Simulation Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:5:p:1639-:d:147920
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