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Model Prediction of Secondary Soil Salinization in the Keriya Oasis, Northwest China

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  • Jumeniyaz Seydehmet

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang University, Shengli Road 666, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
    Hotan Regional Environmental Monitoring Station, Hotan Regional Environmental Protection Bureau, Gujan south Road 277, Hotan 848000, Xinjiang, China)

  • Guang Hui Lv

    (Institute of Ecology and Environment, Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Shengli Road 666, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China)

  • Ilyas Nurmemet

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang University, Shengli Road 666, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China)

  • Tayierjiang Aishan

    (Institute of Ecology and Environment, Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Shengli Road 666, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China)

  • Abdulla Abliz

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang University, Shengli Road 666, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China)

  • Mamat Sawut

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang University, Shengli Road 666, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China)

  • Abdugheni Abliz

    (Institute of Ecology and Environment, Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Shengli Road 666, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China)

  • Mamattursun Eziz

    (Key Laboratory of Lake Environment and Resources in Arid Zone and Collage of Geographical Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Xinyi Road 102, Urumqi 830054, Xinjiang China)

Abstract

Significant anthropogenic and biophysical changes have caused fluctuations in the soil salinization area of the Keriya Oasis in China. The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) sustainability framework and Bayesian networks (BNs) were used to integrate information from anthropogenic and natural systems to model the trend of secondary soil salinization. The developed model predicted that light salinization (vegetation coverage of around 15–20%, soil salt 5–10 g/kg) of the ecotone will increase in the near term but decelerate slightly in the future, and that farmland salinization will decrease in the near term. This trend is expected to accelerate in the future. Both trends are attributed to decreased water logging, increased groundwater exploitation, and decreased ratio of evaporation/precipitation. In contrast, severe salinization (vegetation coverage of around 2%, soil salt ≥20 g/kg) of the ecotone will increase in the near term. This trend will accelerate in the future because decreased river flow will reduce the flushing of severely salinized soil crust. Anthropogenic factors have negative impacts and natural causes have positive impacts on light salinization of ecotones. In situations involving severe farmland salinization, anthropogenic factors have persistent negative impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Jumeniyaz Seydehmet & Guang Hui Lv & Ilyas Nurmemet & Tayierjiang Aishan & Abdulla Abliz & Mamat Sawut & Abdugheni Abliz & Mamattursun Eziz, 2018. "Model Prediction of Secondary Soil Salinization in the Keriya Oasis, Northwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-22, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:656-:d:134066
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Katharina Helming & Katrin Daedlow & Bernd Hansjürgens & Thomas Koellner, 2018. "Assessment and Governance of Sustainable Soil Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-13, November.
    2. Longyu Shi & Miao Zhang & Yajing Zhang & Bin Yang & Huaping Sun & Tong Xu, 2018. "Comprehensive Analysis of Nitrogen Deposition in Urban Ecosystem: A Case Study of Xiamen City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Jumeniyaz Seydehmet & Guang-Hui Lv & Abdugheni Abliz, 2019. "Landscape Design as a Tool to Reduce Soil Salinization: The Study Case of Keriya Oasis (NW China)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, May.
    4. Jiansong Wu & Zhuqiang Hu & Jinyue Chen & Zheng Li, 2018. "Risk Assessment of Underground Subway Stations to Fire Disasters Using Bayesian Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-21, October.
    5. Jing Zhao & Ilyas Nurmemet & Nuerbiye Muhetaer & Sentian Xiao & Adilai Abulaiti, 2023. "Monitoring Soil Salinity Using Machine Learning and the Polarimetric Scattering Features of PALSAR-2 Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, May.
    6. Ting Chang & Degang Yang & Jinwei Huo & Fuqiang Xia & Zhiping Zhang, 2018. "Evaluation of Oasis Sustainability Based on Emergy and Decomposition Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-14, June.

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