IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jscscx/v13y2024i2p112-d1336772.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Paramilitary Conflict in Colombia: A Case Study of Economic Causes of Conflict Recidivism

Author

Listed:
  • William Orlando Prieto Bustos

    (Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Catholic University of Colombia, Street 47 No. 13-54, Building C, Bogota 110211, Colombia)

  • Johanna Manrique-Hernandez

    (College of Graduate Studies, University of British Columbia, 3333 University Way, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada)

Abstract

Following the peace accord on 26 September 2016 between the Colombian government and the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC), significant structural issues persisted in Colombia, such as state fragility, land distribution challenges, and rural impoverishment, all of which jeopardized sustainable peace. Previous disarmament events indicated potential shifts in violence and recidivism rates among ex-combatants. This paper aims to determine the likelihood that, in the post-conflict era with FARC, these ex-combatants would rearm themselves into new criminal factions. Employing a methodology by Paul Collier, the study utilized logit, probit, and panel data models with both fixed and random effects to evaluate the recidivism risk at the municipal level. A 1% increase in per capita municipal income decreased conflict probability due to the increased opportunity cost of disrupting economic endeavors. Conversely, 1% increases in potential conflict benefits from tax revenue and natural resource proceeds raised the probability of conflict by 40% and 17%, respectively. Key results indicate that economic advancement, as measured by per capita income, reduced the duration of paramilitary presence, whereas revenue from taxes and natural resources extended it at the municipal level in Colombia.

Suggested Citation

  • William Orlando Prieto Bustos & Johanna Manrique-Hernandez, 2024. "Paramilitary Conflict in Colombia: A Case Study of Economic Causes of Conflict Recidivism," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-22, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jscscx:v:13:y:2024:i:2:p:112-:d:1336772
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/13/2/112/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/13/2/112/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Klapper, Leora F. & Panos, Georgios A., 2009. "Entrepreneurship in post-conflict transition : the role of informality and access to finance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4935, The World Bank.
    2. Sara Randall, 2005. "The Demographic Consequences of Conflict, Exile and Repatriation: A Case Study of Malian Tuareg," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 291-320, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Bozzoli & Tilman Brück & Nina Wald, 2013. "Self-employment and Conflict in Colombia," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 57(1), pages 117-142, February.
    2. Nadia Simoes & Nuno Crespo & Sandrina B. Moreira, 2016. "Individual Determinants Of Self-Employment Entry: What Do We Really Know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 783-806, September.
    3. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F., 2013. "Measuring poverty dynamics with synthetic panels based on cross-sections," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6504, The World Bank.
    4. Sinan Zeyneloglu & Olga Aymerich & Gohdar Mzuri & Ibrahim Sirkeci, 2021. "Scars of Conflict in the Population Structure of Iraqi Kurdistan: An Unfortunate Cohort and Its “Fortunate” Survivors," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 323-346, June.
    5. Wyrwich, Michael, 2013. "Can socioeconomic heritage produce a lost generation with regard to entrepreneurship?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 667-682.
    6. Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, 2021. "The demographic drivers of grief and memory after genocide in Guatemala," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    7. Orsola Torrisi, 2022. "Wedding Amidst War? Armed Conflict and Female Teen Marriage in Azerbaijan," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(5), pages 1243-1275, December.
    8. Searing, Elizabeth A.M. & Rios-Avila, Fernando & Lecy, Jesse D., 2013. "The impact of psychological trauma on wages in post-conflict Bosnia and Herzegovina," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 165-173.
    9. Ademmer, Esther & Akgüç, Mehtap & Barslund, Mikkel & Di Bartolomeo, Anna & Benček, David & Groll, Dominik & Hoxhaj, Rezart & Lanati, Mauro & Laurentsyeva, Nadzeya & Lücke, Matthias & Ludolph, Lars & R, 2017. "2017 MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe. Sharing responsibility for refugees and expanding legal immigration," MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe, Mercator Dialogue on Asylum and Migration (MEDAM), number 182239.
    10. Dang, Hai-Anh & Lanjouw, Peter & Luoto, Jill & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Using repeated cross-sections to explore movements into and out of poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 112-128.
    11. Tobias, Jutta M. & Mair, Johanna & Barbosa-Leiker, Celestina, 2013. "Toward a theory of transformative entrepreneuring: Poverty reduction and conflict resolution in Rwanda's entrepreneurial coffee sector," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 728-742.
    12. Takahiro Tsujimoto & Yoko Kijima, 2020. "Effects of conflict on child health: Evidence from the 1990–1994 Northern Mali Conflict," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(11), pages 1456-1474, November.
    13. Ghani, Ejaz & Kerr, William R. & O’Connell, Stephen D, 2011. "Who Creates Jobs?," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 70, pages 1-7, November.
    14. Nataliia Vygovska & Andriy Polchanov, 2019. "Estimation of the Losses of the Ukraine's Financial Potential from Military Conflict," Oblik i finansi, Institute of Accounting and Finance, issue 4, pages 70-77, December.
    15. Caroline Krafft & Diana Jimena Arango & Amalia Hadas Rubin & Jocelyn Kelly, 2024. "Conflict and Girl Child Marriage: Global Evidence," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(4), pages 1-26, August.
    16. Ewa Batyra & Hans‐Peter Kohler & Frank F. Furstenberg, 2021. "Changing Gender Gaps in the Timing of First Union Formation and Sexual Initiation in Sub‐Saharan Africa," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 289-322, June.
    17. Britta Augsburg & Ralph De Haas & Heike Harmgart & Costas Meghir, 2012. "Microfinance at the Microfinance at the margin: experimental evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina vidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina," Working Papers 146, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
    18. Schindler, Kati & Bruck, Tilman, 2011. "The effects of conflict on fertility in Rwanda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5715, The World Bank.
    19. Pouliakas, Konstantinos & Panos, Georgios & Zangelidis, Alexandros, 2009. "The Inter-Related Dynamics of Dual Job Holding, Human Capital and Occupational Choice," MPRA Paper 16859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Andriy Polchanov, 2018. "Peculiarities of the Development of Ukraine's Financial Potential in the Period of Military Conflict," Oblik i finansi, Institute of Accounting and Finance, issue 2, pages 96-101, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jscscx:v:13:y:2024:i:2:p:112-:d:1336772. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.