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Hidden Markov Model for Stock Selection

Author

Listed:
  • Nguyet Nguyen

    (Faculty of Mathematics and Statistics, Youngstown State University, 1 University Plaza, Youngstown, OH 44555, USA)

  • Dung Nguyen

    (Quantitative Researcher, Ned Davis Research Group, 600 Bird Bay Drive West, Venice, FL 34285, USA)

Abstract

The hidden Markov model (HMM) is typically used to predict the hidden regimes of observation data. Therefore, this model finds applications in many different areas, such as speech recognition systems, computational molecular biology and financial market predictions. In this paper, we use HMM for stock selection. We first use HMM to make monthly regime predictions for the four macroeconomic variables: inflation (consumer price index (CPI)), industrial production index (INDPRO), stock market index (S&P 500) and market volatility (VIX). At the end of each month, we calibrate HMM’s parameters for each of these economic variables and predict its regimes for the next month. We then look back into historical data to find the time periods for which the four variables had similar regimes with the forecasted regimes. Within those similar periods, we analyze all of the S&P 500 stocks to identify which stock characteristics have been well rewarded during the time periods and assign scores and corresponding weights for each of the stock characteristics. A composite score of each stock is calculated based on the scores and weights of its features. Based on this algorithm, we choose the 50 top ranking stocks to buy. We compare the performances of the portfolio with the benchmark index, S&P 500. With an initial investment of $100 in December 1999, over 15 years, in December 2014, our portfolio had an average gain per annum of 14.9% versus 2.3% for the S&P 500.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyet Nguyen & Dung Nguyen, 2015. "Hidden Markov Model for Stock Selection," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:3:y:2015:i:4:p:455-473:d:58009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    2. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Wang & Yi-Hong Lin & Ilya Mikhelson, 2020. "Regime-Switching Factor Investing with Hidden Markov Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Nguyet Nguyen, 2017. "An Analysis and Implementation of the Hidden Markov Model to Technology Stock Prediction," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-16, November.
    3. Nguyet Nguyen, 2018. "Hidden Markov Model for Stock Trading," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-17, March.
    4. Anton Gerunov, 2023. "Stock Returns Under Different Market Regimes: An Application of Markov Switching Models to 24 European Indices," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 18-35.
    5. José Carlos Ramírez & Francisco Ortiz-Arango & Leovardo Mata, 2021. "The Markovian Pattern of Social Deprivation for Mexicans with Diabetes," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-17, April.
    6. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Henter, Gustav Eje & Yuan, Ao, 2022. "Kernel-based hidden Markov conditional densities," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    7. Reetam Majumder & Qing Ji & Nagaraj K. Neerchal, 2023. "Optimal Stock Portfolio Selection with a Multivariate Hidden Markov Model," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 85(1), pages 177-198, May.
    8. Nguyet Nguyen & Dung Nguyen, 2020. "Global Stock Selection with Hidden Markov Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, December.

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