IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v13y2025i3p57-d1615450.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Towards Examining the Volatility of Top Market-Cap Cryptocurrencies Throughout the COVID-19 Outbreak and the Russia–Ukraine War: Empirical Evidence from GARCH-Type Models

Author

Listed:
  • Ștefan-Cristian Gherghina

    (Department of Finance, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 6 Piata Romana, 010374 Bucharest, Romania)

  • Cristina-Andreea Constantinescu

    (Department of Finance, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 6 Piata Romana, 010374 Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

The cryptocurrency market, known for its inherent volatility, has been significantly influenced by external shocks, particularly during periods of global crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. This study investigates the volatility of the top seven cryptocurrencies by market capitalization—Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Tether (USDT), Binance Coin (BNB), USD Coin (USDC), XRP, and Cardano (ADA)—from 1 January 2020 to 1 September 2024, employing a range of GARCH models (GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH, and DCC-GARCH). This research aims to examine the persistence of leverage effects, volatility asymmetry, and the impact of past price fluctuations on future volatility, with a particular focus on how these dynamics were shaped by the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. The findings reveal that past price fluctuations had a limited impact on future volatility for most cryptocurrencies, although leverage effects became evident during market anomalies. Stablecoins (USDC and USDT) showed a distinct volatility pattern, reflecting their peg to the US Dollar, while platform-associated BNB demonstrated unique volatility characteristics. The results underscore the market’s sensitivity to price movements, highlighting the varying reactions of investor profiles across different cryptocurrencies. These insights contribute to understanding volatility transmission within the cryptocurrency market during times of crisis and offer important implications for market participants, particularly in the context of risk management strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ștefan-Cristian Gherghina & Cristina-Andreea Constantinescu, 2025. "Towards Examining the Volatility of Top Market-Cap Cryptocurrencies Throughout the COVID-19 Outbreak and the Russia–Ukraine War: Empirical Evidence from GARCH-Type Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-43, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:13:y:2025:i:3:p:57-:d:1615450
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/3/57/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/3/57/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marie Briere & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2015. "Virtual Currency, Tangible Return: Portfolio Diversification with Bitcoins," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 16(6), pages 365-373.
    2. Aalborg, Halvor Aarhus & Molnár, Peter & de Vries, Jon Erik, 2019. "What can explain the price, volatility and trading volume of Bitcoin?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 255-265.
    3. Foroutan, Parisa & Lahmiri, Salim, 2022. "The effect of COVID-19 pandemic on return-volume and return-volatility relationships in cryptocurrency markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    4. Brini, Alessio & Lenz, Jimmie, 2022. "Assessing the resiliency of investors against cryptocurrency market crashes through the leverage effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Parthajit Kayal & Purnima Rohilla, 2021. "Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-21, July.
    2. Khaki, Audil & Prasad, Mason & Al-Mohamad, Somar & Bakry, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Re-evaluating portfolio diversification and design using cryptocurrencies: Are decentralized cryptocurrencies enough?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2023. "Predictability of crypto returns: The impact of trading behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    4. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Plíhal, Tomáš & Širaňová, Mária, 2020. "Impact of macroeconomic news, regulation and hacking exchange markets on the volatility of bitcoin," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Qiu, Yue & Wang, Yifan & Xie, Tian, 2021. "Forecasting Bitcoin realized volatility by measuring the spillover effect among cryptocurrencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    6. Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Rizwan Ahmed & Muhammad Ali Nasir & Muhammad Shahbaz & Ngoc Quang Anh Huynh, 2024. "The nexus between black and digital gold: evidence from US markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 334(1), pages 521-546, March.
    7. Qiu, Yue & Wang, Zongrun & Xie, Tian & Zhang, Xinyu, 2021. "Forecasting Bitcoin realized volatility by exploiting measurement error under model uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 179-201.
    8. Sabah, Nasim, 2020. "Cryptocurrency accepting venues, investor attention, and volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    9. Bouri, Elie & Lucey, Brian & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies and the downside risk in equity investments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    10. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2019. "Time Varying Spillovers between the Online Search Volume and Stock Returns: Case of CESEE Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-30, October.
    11. Christie Smith & Aaron Kumar, 2018. "Crypto‐Currencies – An Introduction To Not‐So‐Funny Moneys," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5), pages 1531-1559, December.
    12. Ariane Szafarz, 2015. "Market Efficiency and Crises:Don’t Throw the Baby out with the Bathwater," Bankers, Markets & Investors, ESKA Publishing, issue 139, pages 20-26, November-.
    13. Bildirici, Melike E. & Sonustun, Bahri, 2021. "Chaotic behavior in gold, silver, copper and bitcoin prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Jin, Changlun & Tian, Xiujuan, 2024. "Enhanced safe-haven status of Bitcoin: Evidence from the Silicon Valley Bank collapse," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    15. White, Reilly & Marinakis, Yorgos & Islam, Nazrul & Walsh, Steven, 2020. "Is Bitcoin a currency, a technology-based product, or something else?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    16. Pieters, Gina & Vivanco, Sofia, 2017. "Financial regulations and price inconsistencies across Bitcoin markets," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-14.
    17. Anatolyy Dzyuba & Irina Solovyeva & Dmitry Konopelko, 2023. "Managing Electricity Costs in Industrial Mining and Cryptocurrency Data Centers," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 76-90, July.
    18. Sapkota, Niranjan, 2022. "News-based sentiment and bitcoin volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    19. Corbet, Shaen & Katsiampa, Paraskevi & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2020. "Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between Bitcoin, altcoins and traditional financial assets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    20. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Lahiani, Amine & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Testing for asymmetric nonlinear short- and long-run relationships between bitcoin, aggregate commodity and gold prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 224-235.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:13:y:2025:i:3:p:57-:d:1615450. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.