IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v13y2024i1p1-d1554702.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring the Impacts of Argentina’s Presidential Election Process in 2023 on the Stock Market Performance Using a Dynamic Event Study Methodology

Author

Listed:
  • Eduardo Enrique Sandoval Álamos

    (Facultad de Ingeniería, Departamento de Industria, Universidad Tecnológica Metropolitana, Santiago 8940000, Chile
    Instituto Universitario de Investigación y Desarrollo Tecnológico, Universidad Tecnológica Metropolitana, Santiago 8940000, Chile)

  • Claudio René Molina Mac-Kay

    (Facultad de Administración y Economía, Departamento de Contabilidad y Gestión Financiera, Universidad Tecnológica Metropolitana, Santiago 8940000, Chile)

  • Erwin Octavio Taipe Aquino

    (Facultad de Ingeniería, Departamento de Industria, Universidad Tecnológica Metropolitana, Santiago 8940000, Chile)

Abstract

This study measured the individual and conjoint effects of Argentina’s primaries and first- and second-voting presidential election results, as well as their post-election comparative effects, on the stock market performance of its most relevant economic sectors. Within four different estimation methods, the state-space specification outperformed the rest. The findings suggest that investors can under/overreact compared to post-election sectors performance, the public services sector being the exception. Therefore, those investors who anticipated the election results by liquidating positions in companies in the materials sector and investing more in companies in the energy and other industrial sectors achieved a superior performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Enrique Sandoval Álamos & Claudio René Molina Mac-Kay & Erwin Octavio Taipe Aquino, 2024. "Measuring the Impacts of Argentina’s Presidential Election Process in 2023 on the Stock Market Performance Using a Dynamic Event Study Methodology," Risks, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-27, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:13:y:2024:i:1:p:1-:d:1554702
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/1/1/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/1/1/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joel E. Thompson, 1988. "More Methods That Make Little Difference In Event Studies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 77-86, March.
    2. Saša Obradović & Nenad Tomić, 2017. "The effect of presidential election in the USA on stock return flow – a study of a political event," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 112-124, January.
    3. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, July.
    4. Harry Mamaysky & Matthew Spiegel & Hong Zhang, 2007. "Improved Forecasting of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(3), pages 359-400.
    5. Sadok El Ghoul & Omrane Guedhami & Sattar A. Mansi & Oumar Sy, 2023. "Event studies in international finance research," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 54(2), pages 344-364, March.
    6. Karen L. Benson & Robert W. Faff & John Nowland, 2007. "Do Derivatives Have a Role in the Risk-Shifting Behaviour of Fund Managers?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 32(2), pages 271-292, December.
    7. Watts, Ross, 1973. "The Information Content of Dividends," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(2), pages 191-211, April.
    8. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ortas, E. & Salvador, M. & Moneva, J.M., 2015. "Improved beta modeling and forecasting: An unobserved component approach with conditional heteroscedastic disturbances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 27-51.
    2. Delia DiaconaÅŸu & Seyed Mehdian & Ovidiu Stoica, 2023. "The Global Stock Market Reactions to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    3. Mohit Gupta & Navdeep Aggarwal, 2018. "Signaling Effect of Shifts in Dividend Policy: Evidence from Indian Capital Markets," Business Perspectives and Research, , vol. 6(2), pages 142-153, July.
    4. Ortas, Eduardo & Moneva, José M. & Salvador, Manuel, 2012. "Does socially responsible investment equity indexes in emerging markets pay off? Evidence from Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 581-597.
    5. Sadaf Anwar & Shveta Singh & P. K. Jain, 2017. "Impact of Cash Dividend Announcements: Evidence from the Indian Manufacturing Companies," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 16(1), pages 29-60, April.
    6. Chanchal Chatterjee & Paromita Dutta & Sankarshan Basu, 2024. "Evidence-based Stock Price Behaviour Around Cash Dividend Announcements in an Emerging Market Set-up," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 25(2_suppl), pages 265-282, April.
    7. Al Shawawreh Fawaz Khalid, 2023. "Reassessing the Long-Run Abnormal Performance of Jordanian IPOs: An Event Study Approach," Foundations of Management, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 141-160, January.
    8. Holmes, Kathryn A. & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Estimating the performance attributes of Australian multi-sector managed funds within a dynamic Kalman filter framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 998-1011, December.
    9. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    10. repec:pra:mprapa:121191 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Wahyono, Budi & Rapih, Subroto & Boungou, Whelsy, 2023. "Unleashing the wordsmith: Analysing the stock market reactions to the launch of ChatGPT in the US Education sector," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    12. Daria Gavrilova, 2023. "Effects Of Index Additions On Stock Price Informativeness," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 31, pages 39-64, June.
    13. Darima Fotheringham & Michael A. Wiles, 2023. "The effect of implementing chatbot customer service on stock returns: an event study analysis," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 802-822, July.
    14. Manuel Ammann & Philipp Horsch & David Oesch, 2016. "Competing with Superstars," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(10), pages 2842-2858, October.
    15. DAVID E. ALLEN & MICHAEL McALEER & ROBERT J. POWELL & ABHAY K. SINGH, 2018. "Non-Parametric Multiple Change Point Analysis Of The Global Financial Crisis," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 1-23, June.
    16. Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Vu, Phuong Anh & Wong, Bernard, 2020. "A multivariate evolutionary generalised linear model framework with adaptive estimation for claims reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 50-71.
    17. Rand Kwong Yew Low, 2018. "Vine copulas: modelling systemic risk and enhancing higher‐moment portfolio optimisation," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 423-463, November.
    18. Fenech, Jean-Pierre & Skully, Michael & Xuguang, Han, 2014. "Franking credits and market reactions: Evidence from the Australian convertible security market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-19.
    19. Prilly Oktoviany & Robert Knobloch & Ralf Korn, 2021. "A machine learning-based price state prediction model for agricultural commodities using external factors," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 1063-1085, December.
    20. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo & Mauricio Villamizar, 2014. "The Impact of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Colombia. An Event Study Approach," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, November.
    21. Camille Baulant & Nivine Albouz, 2021. "Has financial globalization since 1990 reduced income inequality: the role of rating announcements on the volatility and the returns of the Brazilian Financial Market [Les annonces de notation souv," Working Papers hal-03258994, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:13:y:2024:i:1:p:1-:d:1554702. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.