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Historical Analysis and Prediction of the Magnitude and Scale of Natural Disasters Globally

Author

Listed:
  • Julia Buszta

    (Department of Integrated Geodesy and Cartography, AGH University of Science and Technology, 30349 Krakow, Poland)

  • Katarzyna Wójcik

    (Department of Integrated Geodesy and Cartography, AGH University of Science and Technology, 30349 Krakow, Poland)

  • Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa 58051-900, Brazil)

  • Krystian Kozioł

    (Department of Integrated Geodesy and Cartography, AGH University of Science and Technology, 30349 Krakow, Poland)

  • Kamil Maciuk

    (Department of Integrated Geodesy and Cartography, AGH University of Science and Technology, 30349 Krakow, Poland)

Abstract

The aim of this study was to conduct a geospatial analysis of natural disasters occurring worldwide between 1960 and 2018. A total of 9962 disasters were considered, covering 39,953 locations. These phenomena were analysed in terms of frequency and number to determine changes over time and predict future trends. The data included information such as location and year of occurrence. The following natural disasters were included in the analyses: droughts, earthquakes, extreme temperatures, floods, landslides, earth mass movements, storms, and volcanic activity. The analyses were carried out across three dimensions: by continent, by number of disasters in relation to population, and in relation to the area of the continents concerned. An additional objective was to visualise the distribution of disasters by affected countries. This aspect shows the incidence of disasters by year during the period under study, with a 20-year forecast for the coming years.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Buszta & Katarzyna Wójcik & Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos & Krystian Kozioł & Kamil Maciuk, 2023. "Historical Analysis and Prediction of the Magnitude and Scale of Natural Disasters Globally," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-16, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jresou:v:12:y:2023:i:9:p:106-:d:1233441
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Pedro Gabriel Villani & Paulo Sergio Cugnasca, 2024. "A POMDP Approach to Map Victims in Disaster Scenarios," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-25, November.

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