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Spatio-Temporal Spread Pattern of COVID-19 in Italy

Author

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  • Nicoletta D’Angelo

    (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Aziendali e Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Palermo, 90128 Palermo, Italy)

  • Antonino Abbruzzo

    (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Aziendali e Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Palermo, 90128 Palermo, Italy)

  • Giada Adelfio

    (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Aziendali e Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Palermo, 90128 Palermo, Italy)

Abstract

This paper investigates the spatio-temporal spread pattern of COVID-19 in Italy, during the first wave of infections, from February to October 2020. Disease mappings of the virus infections by using the Besag–York–Mollié model and some spatio-temporal extensions are provided. This modeling framework, which includes a temporal component, allows the studying of the time evolution of the spread pattern among the 107 Italian provinces. The focus is on the effect of citizens’ mobility patterns, represented here by the three distinct phases of the Italian virus first wave, identified by the Italian government, also characterized by the lockdown period. Results show the effectiveness of the lockdown action and an inhomogeneous spatial trend that characterizes the virus spread during the first wave. Furthermore, the results suggest that the temporal evolution of each province’s cases is independent of the temporal evolution of the other ones, meaning that the contagions and temporal trend may be caused by some province-specific aspects rather than by the subjects’ spatial movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicoletta D’Angelo & Antonino Abbruzzo & Giada Adelfio, 2021. "Spatio-Temporal Spread Pattern of COVID-19 in Italy," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-14, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:19:p:2454-:d:648879
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    References listed on IDEAS

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