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An Evolving Partial Consensus Fuzzy Collaborative Forecasting Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Tin-Chih Toly Chen

    (Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, National Chiao Tung University, 1001, University Road, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan)

  • Yu-Cheng Wang

    (Department of Aeronautical Engineering, Chaoyang University of Technology, Taichung 41349, Taiwan)

  • Chin-Hau Huang

    (Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, National Chiao Tung University, 1001, University Road, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan)

Abstract

Current fuzzy collaborative forecasting methods have rarely considered how to determine the appropriate number of experts to optimize forecasting performance. Therefore, this study proposes an evolving partial-consensus fuzzy collaborative forecasting approach to address this issue. In the proposed approach, experts apply various fuzzy forecasting methods to forecast the same target, and the partial consensus fuzzy intersection operator, rather than the prevalent fuzzy intersection operator, is applied to aggregate the fuzzy forecasts by experts. Meaningful information can be determined by observing partial consensus fuzzy intersection changes as the number of experts varies, including the appropriate number of experts. We applied the evolving partial-consensus fuzzy collaborative forecasting approach to forecasting dynamic random access memory product yield with real data. The proposed approach forecasting performance surpassed current fuzzy collaborative forecasting that considered overall consensus, and it increased forecasting accuracy 13% in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

Suggested Citation

  • Tin-Chih Toly Chen & Yu-Cheng Wang & Chin-Hau Huang, 2020. "An Evolving Partial Consensus Fuzzy Collaborative Forecasting Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-19, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:8:y:2020:i:4:p:554-:d:343728
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Toly Chen & Yu-Cheng Wang, 2013. "Semiconductor Yield Forecasting Using Quadratic-Programming-Based Fuzzy Collaborative Intelligence Approach," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2013, pages 1-7, May.
    2. Zaifang Zhang & Danhua Xu & Egon Ostrosi & Li Yu & Beibei Fan, 2019. "A systematic decision-making method for evaluating design alternatives of product service system based on variable precision rough set," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 1895-1909, April.
    3. R. O. Parreiras & P. Ya. Ekel & D. C. Morais, 2012. "Fuzzy Set Based Consensus Schemes for Multicriteria Group Decision making Applied to Strategic Planning," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 153-183, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hsin-Chieh Wu & Toly Chen & Chin-Hau Huang, 2020. "A Piecewise Linear FGM Approach for Efficient and Accurate FAHP Analysis: Smart Backpack Design as an Example," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-18, August.
    2. Hsin-Chieh Wu & Yu-Cheng Wang & Tin-Chih Toly Chen, 2020. "Assessing and Comparing COVID-19 Intervention Strategies Using a Varying Partial Consensus Fuzzy Collaborative Intelligence Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-23, October.
    3. Hsin-Chieh Wu & Tin-Chih Toly Chen & Chin-Hau Huang & Yun-Cian Shih, 2020. "Comparing Built-in Power Banks for a Smart Backpack Design Using an Auto-Weighting Fuzzy-Weighted-Intersection FAHP Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-22, October.

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