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Modeling the Propagation of Infectious Diseases across the Air Transport Network: A Bayesian Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Quirós Corte

    (Department of Aerospace Systems, Air Transport and Airports, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

  • Javier Cano

    (Department of Computer Science and Statistics, Rey Juan Carlos University, 28933 Madrid, Spain)

  • Eduardo Sánchez Ayra

    (Department of Aerospace Systems, Air Transport and Airports, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

  • Chaitanya Joshi

    (Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, Auckland 1010, New Zealand)

  • Víctor Fernando Gómez Comendador

    (Department of Aerospace Systems, Air Transport and Airports, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, continues to impact the world even three years after its outbreak. International border closures and health alerts severely affected the air transport industry, resulting in substantial financial losses. This study analyzes the global data on infected individuals alongside aircraft types, flight durations, and passenger flows. Using a Bayesian framework, we forecast the risk of infection during commercial flights and its potential spread across an air transport network. Our model allows us to explore the effect of mitigation measures, such as closing individual routes or airports, reducing aircraft occupancy, or restricting access for infected passengers, on disease propagation, while allowing the air industry to operate at near-normal levels. Our novel approach combines dynamic network modeling with discrete event simulation. A real-case study at major European hubs illustrates our methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Quirós Corte & Javier Cano & Eduardo Sánchez Ayra & Chaitanya Joshi & Víctor Fernando Gómez Comendador, 2024. "Modeling the Propagation of Infectious Diseases across the Air Transport Network: A Bayesian Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-25, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:8:p:1241-:d:1379171
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Lloyd & Robert Dixon, 2021. "Modelling the Spread of the Coronavirus: A View from Economics," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(1), pages 36-56, March.
    2. Lieshout, Rogier, 2012. "Measuring the size of an airport’s catchment area," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 27-34.
    3. Colin J. Carlson & Gregory F. Albery & Cory Merow & Christopher H. Trisos & Casey M. Zipfel & Evan A. Eskew & Kevin J. Olival & Noam Ross & Shweta Bansal, 2022. "Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk," Nature, Nature, vol. 607(7919), pages 555-562, July.
    4. Christos Nicolaides & Demetris Avraam & Luis Cueto‐Felgueroso & Marta C. González & Ruben Juanes, 2020. "Hand‐Hygiene Mitigation Strategies Against Global Disease Spreading through the Air Transportation Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 723-740, April.
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