IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v12y2024i6p825-d1355226.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Two-Age-Structured COVID-19 Epidemic Model: Estimation of Virulence Parameters through New Data Incorporation

Author

Listed:
  • Cristiano Maria Verrelli

    (Electronic Engineering Department, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome, Italy)

  • Fabio Della Rossa

    (Department of Electronic, Information and Biomedical Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milan, Italy)

Abstract

The COVID-19 epidemic has required countries to implement different containment strategies to limit its spread, like strict or weakened national lockdown rules and the application of age-stratified vaccine prioritization strategies. These interventions have in turn modified the age-dependent patterns of social contacts. In our recent paper, starting from the available age-structured real data at the national level, we identified, for the Italian case, specific virulence parameters for a two-age-structured COVID-19 epidemic compartmental model (under 60, and 60 years and over) in six different diseases transmission scenarios under concurrently adopted feedback interventions. An interpretation of how each external scenario modifies the age-dependent patterns of social contacts and the spread of COVID-19 disease has been accordingly provided. In this paper, which can be viewed as a sequel to the previous one, we mainly apply the same general methodology therein (involving the same dynamic model) to new data covering the three subsequent additional scenarios: (i) a mitigated coordinated intermittent regional action in conjunction with the II vaccination phase; (ii) a super-attenuated coordinated intermittent regional action in conjunction with the II vaccination phase; and (iii) a last step towards normality in conjunction with the start of the III vaccination phase. As a new contribution, we show how meaningful updated information can be drawn out, once the identification of virulence parameters, characterizing the two age groups within the latest three different phases, is successfully carried out. Nevertheless, differently from our previous paper, the global optimization procedure is carried out here with the number of susceptible individuals in each scenario being left free to change, to account for reinfection and immunity due to vaccination. Not only do the slightly different estimates we obtain for the previous scenarios not impact any of the previous considerations (and thus illustrate the robustness of the procedure), but also, and mainly, the new results provide a meaningful picture of the evolution of social behaviors, along with the goodness of strategic interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristiano Maria Verrelli & Fabio Della Rossa, 2024. "Two-Age-Structured COVID-19 Epidemic Model: Estimation of Virulence Parameters through New Data Incorporation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-13, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:6:p:825-:d:1355226
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/6/825/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/6/825/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uri Goldsztejn & David Schwartzman & Arye Nehorai, 2020. "Public policy and economic dynamics of COVID-19 spread: A mathematical modeling study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Imad A. Moosa, 2020. "The effectiveness of social distancing in containing Covid-19," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(58), pages 6292-6305, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Borja Gambau & Juan C. Palomino & Juan G. Rodríguez & Raquel Sebastian, 2022. "COVID-19 restrictions in the US: wage vulnerability by education, race and gender," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(25), pages 2900-2915, May.
    2. Bernard Yeboah-Asiamah Asare & Elizabeth Thomas & Jacquita S. Affandi & Myles Schammer & Paul Brown & Matthew Pilbeam & Chris Harris & Chris Ellison & Dominika Kwasnicka & Daniel Powell & Christopher , 2021. "Mental Well-Being during COVID-19: A Cross-Sectional Study of Fly-In Fly-Out Workers in the Mining Industry in Australia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-14, November.
    3. Hussein, Elham & Daoud, Sumaya & Alrabaiah, Hussam & Badawi, Rawand, 2020. "Exploring undergraduate students’ attitudes towards emergency online learning during COVID-19: A case from the UAE," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Jagriti Srivastava & Aravind Sampath & Balagopal Gopalakrishnan, 2021. "Is CSR the key to unlocking debt financing during COVID-19? A multicountry perspective," Working papers 481, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    5. Srivastava, Jagriti & Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal, 2021. "In-kind financing during a pandemic: Trade credit and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 111433, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2021.
    6. Habibullah, Muzafar & Saari, Mohd Yusof & Haji Din, Badariah & Safuan, Sugiharso & Utit, Chakrin, 2021. "Labour Market Reactions to Lockdown Measures during the Covid-19 Pandemic in Malaysia: An Empirical Note," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(1), pages 39-49.
    7. Zhang, Wenjia & Wu, Yulin & Deng, Guobang, 2024. "Social and spatial disparities in individuals’ mobility response time to COVID-19: A big data analysis incorporating changepoint detection and accelerated failure time models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    8. Yingtong Chen & Fei Wu & Dayong Zhang & Qiang Ji, 2024. "Tourism in pandemic: the role of digital travel vouchers in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Rajeev K. Goel & Michael A. Nelson, 2023. "Aggressive COVID‐19 lockdown policies: What factors significantly drove them across nations?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 2211-2222, June.
    10. Ben Balmford & James D. Annan & Julia C. Hargreaves & Marina Altoè & Ian J. Bateman, 2020. "Cross-Country Comparisons of Covid-19: Policy, Politics and the Price of Life," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 525-551, August.
    11. Claudia C. Colmenares-Mejía & Norma Serrano-Díaz & Doris C. Quintero-Lesmes & Ligia Meneses & Isail Salazar Acosta & Álvaro J. Idrovo & Duván Y. Sanabria-Echeverry & Helmer Cordero-Rebolledo & Víctor , 2021. "Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection among Occupational Groups from the Bucaramanga Metropolitan Area, Colombia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-13, April.
    12. Lee, Kang-Bok & Han, Sumin & Jeong, Yeasung, 2020. "COVID-19, flattening the curve, and Benford’s law," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 559(C).
    13. Kamal Desai & Eric Druyts & Kevin Yan & Chakrapani Balijepalli, 2020. "On Pandemic Preparedness: How Well is the Modeling Community Prepared for COVID-19?," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 38(11), pages 1149-1151, November.
    14. Srivastava, Jagriti & Sampath, Aravind & Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal, 2022. "Is ESG the key to unlock debt financing during the COVID-19 pandemic? International evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    15. Martin, Diego A. & Romero, Dario A., 2024. "Social distancing and COVID-19 under violence: Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    16. Jagriti Srivastava & Balagopal Gopalakrishnan, 2021. "Work from home amenability and venture capital financing during COVID-19," Working papers 458, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    17. Srivastava, Jagriti & Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal, 2021. "In-kind financing during a pandemic: Trade credit and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 108951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Elvira P. de Lara-Tuprio & Maria Regina Justina E. Estuar & Joselito T. Sescon & Cymon Kayle Lubangco & Rolly Czar Joseph T. Castillo & Timothy Robin Y. Teng & Lenard Paulo V. Tamayo & Jay Michael R. , 2022. "Economic losses from COVID-19 cases in the Philippines: a dynamic model of health and economic policy trade-offs," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    19. Tung, Hans H. & Chang, Teng-Jen & Lin, Ming-Jen, 2022. "Political ideology predicts preventative behaviors and infections amid COVID-19 in democracies," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    20. Jagriti Srivastava & Balagopal Gopalakrishnan, 2021. "In-kind financing during a pandemic: Trade credit and COVID-19," Working papers 473, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:6:p:825-:d:1355226. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.