IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v12y2024i5p740-d1349249.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Bayesian Approach for Lifetime Modeling and Prediction with Multi-Type Group-Shared Missing Covariates

Author

Listed:
  • Hao Zeng

    (College of Media Engineering, Communication University of Zhejiang, Hangzhou 310018, China)

  • Xuxue Sun

    (College of Media Engineering, Communication University of Zhejiang, Hangzhou 310018, China)

  • Kuo Wang

    (College of Data Science, Jiaxing University, Jiaxing 314001, China)

  • Yuxin Wen

    (Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler School of Engineering, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92618, USA)

  • Wujun Si

    (Department of Industrial, Systems and Manufacturing Engineering, Wichita State University, Wichita, KS 67260, USA)

  • Mingyang Li

    (Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620, USA)

Abstract

In the field of reliability engineering, covariate information shared among product units within a specific group (e.g., a manufacturing batch, an operating region), such as operating conditions and design settings, exerts substantial influence on product lifetime prediction. The covariates shared within each group may be missing due to sensing limitations and data privacy issues. The missing covariates shared within the same group commonly encompass a variety of attribute types, such as discrete types, continuous types, or mixed types. Existing studies have mainly considered single-type missing covariates at the individual level, and they have failed to thoroughly investigate the influence of multi-type group-shared missing covariates. Ignoring the multi-type group-shared missing covariates may result in biased estimates and inaccurate predictions of product lifetime, subsequently leading to suboptimal maintenance decisions with increased costs. To account for the influence of the group-shared missing covariates with different structures, a new flexible lifetime model with multi-type group-shared latent heterogeneity is proposed. We further develop a Bayesian estimation algorithm with data augmentation that jointly quantifies the influence of both observed and multi-type group-shared missing covariates on lifetime prediction. A tripartite method is then developed to examine the existence, identify the correct type, and quantify the influence of group-shared missing covariates. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, a comprehensive simulation study is carried out. A real case study involving tensile testing of molding material units is conducted to validate the proposed approach and demonstrate its practical applicability.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao Zeng & Xuxue Sun & Kuo Wang & Yuxin Wen & Wujun Si & Mingyang Li, 2024. "A Bayesian Approach for Lifetime Modeling and Prediction with Multi-Type Group-Shared Missing Covariates," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-23, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:5:p:740-:d:1349249
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/5/740/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/5/740/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ruiwen Zhou & Huiqiong Li & Jianguo Sun & Niansheng Tang, 2022. "A new approach to estimation of the proportional hazards model based on interval-censored data with missing covariates," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 335-355, July.
    2. Lauvernet, Claire & Helbert, Céline, 2020. "Metamodeling methods that incorporate qualitative variables for improved design of vegetative filter strips," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    3. Chen, Suiyao & Lu, Lu & Xiang, Yisha & Lu, Qing & Li, Mingyang, 2018. "A data heterogeneity modeling and quantification approach for field pre-assessment of chloride-induced corrosion in aging infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 123-135.
    4. Cha, Ji Hwan & Finkelstein, Maxim, 2014. "Some notes on unobserved parameters (frailties) in reliability modeling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 99-103.
    5. Zhuang, Liangliang & Xu, Ancha & Pang, Jihong, 2021. "Product reliability analysis based on heavily censored interval data with batch effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    6. Li, Mingyang & Liu, Jian, 2016. "Bayesian hazard modeling based on lifetime data with latent heterogeneity," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 183-189.
    7. Kangwon Seo & Rong Pan, 2017. "Data analysis of step-stress accelerated life tests with heterogeneous group effects," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(9), pages 885-898, September.
    8. Berg, Andreas & Meyer, Renate & Yu, Jun, 2004. "Deviance Information Criterion for Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 107-120, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rezgar Zaki & Abbas Barabadi & Javad Barabady & Ali Nouri Qarahasanlou, 2022. "Observed and unobserved heterogeneity in failure data analysis," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 236(1), pages 194-207, February.
    2. Altun, Mustafa & Comert, Salih Vehbi, 2016. "A change-point based reliability prediction model using field return data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 175-184.
    3. Xi, Yanhui & Peng, Hui & Qin, Yemei & Xie, Wenbiao & Chen, Xiaohong, 2015. "Bayesian analysis of heavy-tailed market microstructure model and its application in stock markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 141-153.
    4. Wang, Tiao & Li, Chunhe & Zheng, Jian-jun & Hackl, Jürgen & Luan, Yao & Ishida, Tetsuya & Medepalli, Satya, 2023. "Consideration of coupling of crack development and corrosion in assessing the reliability of reinforced concrete beams subjected to bending," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    5. Zhang, Jian-Xun & Hu, Chang-Hua & He, Xiao & Si, Xiao-Sheng & Liu, Yang & Zhou, Dong-Hua, 2017. "Lifetime prognostics for deteriorating systems with time-varying random jumps," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 338-350.
    6. Pugliese, F. & De Risi, R. & Sarno, L. Di, 2022. "Reliability assessment of existing RC bridges with spatially-variable pitting corrosion subjected to increasing traffic demand," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    7. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2018. "Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 807-823, September.
    8. Shirley J. Huang & Qianqiu Liu & Jun Yu, 2007. "Realized Daily Variance of S&P 500 Cash Index: A Revaluation of Stylized Facts," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 33-56, May.
    9. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos, 2020. "On an integer-valued stochastic intensity model for time series of counts," MPRA Paper 105406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Nonejad, Nima, 2015. "Flexible model comparison of unobserved components models using particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 35-39.
    11. Leandro Maciel, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies value‐at‐risk and expected shortfall: Do regime‐switching volatility models improve forecasting?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4840-4855, July.
    12. Alin Sima, 2008. "Stylized Facts and Discrete Stochastic Volatility Models," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 10, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
    13. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    14. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Walke, Adam G. & Villavicencio, Diana, 2015. "An Econometric Approach for Modeling Population Change in Doña Ana County, New Mexico," MPRA Paper 71141, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jan 2015.
    15. Luc Bauwens & Michel Lubrano, 2007. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Disequilibrium Models: An Application to the Polish Credit Market," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 469-486.
    16. Chiu, Hsin-Yu & Chen, Ting-Fu, 2020. "Impact of volatility jumps in a mean-reverting model: Derivative pricing and empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2013. "The dynamics of commodity prices," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 527-542, March.
    18. Wang, Joanna J.J. & Chan, Jennifer S.K. & Choy, S.T. Boris, 2011. "Stochastic volatility models with leverage and heavy-tailed distributions: A Bayesian approach using scale mixtures," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 852-862, January.
    19. Zhongxian Men & Tony S. Wirjanto & Adam W. Kolkiewicz, 2016. "A Multiscale Stochastic Conditional Duration Model," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(04), pages 1-28, December.
    20. Zhongxian Men & Adam W. Kolkiewicz & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2019. "Threshold Stochastic Conditional Duration Model for Financial Transaction Data," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:5:p:740-:d:1349249. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.