IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v12y2024i16p2510-d1456160.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

System-of-Systems Resilience Analysis and Design Using Bayesian and Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Tianci Jiao

    (College of Computer, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410075, China)

  • Hao Yuan

    (College of System Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410075, China)

  • Jing Wang

    (College of Computer, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410075, China)

  • Jun Ma

    (College of Computer, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410075, China)

  • Xiaoling Li

    (College of Computer, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410075, China)

  • Aimin Luo

    (College of System Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410075, China)

Abstract

A System-of-Systems (SoS) is characterized both by independence and by inter-dependency. This inter-dependency, while allowing an SoS to achieve its objectives, also means that failures can cascade throughout the SoS. An SoS needs to be resilient to deal with the impact of complex internal and external environments. In this paper, we propose a resilience analysis method of an SoS based on a hierarchy structure. Firstly, we establish a hierarchy structure, which is ranked from high to low as capability level, activity level and system level. Then, Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) are used to analyze the resilience of the SoS. A resilience-based system importance metric is introduced, which is used in the budget allocation optimization problem during the development domain of an SoS. This paper proposes a mathematical programming model aimed at optimizing SoS resilience by optimally using budget to the subsystem. The application of the proposed approach is demonstrated using a case study: a Next Generation Air Transportation setting. The study results provide evidence that the proposed inter-dependency analysis based on Bayesian theory and the SoS resilience design approach can assist SoS system engineers in increasing expected SoS resilience during the development domain.

Suggested Citation

  • Tianci Jiao & Hao Yuan & Jing Wang & Jun Ma & Xiaoling Li & Aimin Luo, 2024. "System-of-Systems Resilience Analysis and Design Using Bayesian and Dynamic Bayesian Networks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:16:p:2510-:d:1456160
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/16/2510/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/16/2510/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yongjun Chen & Xiaojian Li & Jin Wang & Mei Liu & Chaoxun Cai & Yuefeng Shi, 2023. "Research on the Application of Fuzzy Bayesian Network in Risk Assessment of Catenary Construction," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, April.
    2. Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Barker, Kash & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose E., 2016. "A review of definitions and measures of system resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 47-61.
    3. Yacov Y. Haimes, 2009. "On the Definition of Resilience in Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 498-501, April.
    4. Hossain, Niamat Ullah Ibne & Jaradat, Raed & Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Marufuzzaman, Mohammad & Buchanan, Randy K., 2019. "A framework for modeling and assessing system resilience using a Bayesian network: A case study of an interdependent electrical infrastructure system," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 62-83.
    5. Truong Ngoc Cuong & Le Ngoc Bao Long & Hwan-Seong Kim & Sam-Sang You, 2023. "Data analytics and throughput forecasting in port management systems against disruptions: a case study of Busan Port," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 25(1), pages 61-89, March.
    6. Phillis, Yannis A. & Kouikoglou, Vassilis S., 2012. "System-of-Systems hierarchy of biodiversity conservation problems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 235, pages 36-48.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhu, Chunli & Wu, Jianping & Liu, Mingyu & Luan, Jianlin & Li, Tingting & Hu, Kezhen, 2020. "Cyber-physical resilience modelling and assessment of urban roadway system interrupted by rainfall," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    2. Bucar, Raif C.B. & Hayeri, Yeganeh M., 2020. "Quantitative assessment of the impacts of disruptive precipitation on surface transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    3. Kammouh, Omar & Gardoni, Paolo & Cimellaro, Gian Paolo, 2020. "Probabilistic framework to evaluate the resilience of engineering systems using Bayesian and dynamic Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    4. Mottahedi, Adel & Sereshki, Farhang & Ataei, Mohammad & Qarahasanlou, Ali Nouri & Barabadi, Abbas, 2021. "Resilience estimation of critical infrastructure systems: Application of expert judgment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    5. Liu, Xing & Fang, Yi-Ping & Zio, Enrico, 2021. "A Hierarchical Resilience Enhancement Framework for Interdependent Critical Infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. Jonathan Pearson & G. Punzo & M. Mayfield & G. Brighty & A. Parsons & P. Collins & S. Jeavons & A. Tagg, 2018. "Flood resilience: consolidating knowledge between and within critical infrastructure sectors," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 318-329, September.
    7. Caputo, A.C. & Donati, L. & Salini, P., 2023. "Estimating resilience of manufacturing plants to physical disruptions: Model and application," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    8. Terje Aven, 2019. "The Call for a Shift from Risk to Resilience: What Does it Mean?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1196-1203, June.
    9. Hossain, Niamat Ullah Ibne & Nur, Farjana & Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Jaradat, Raed & Marufuzzaman, Mohammad & Puryear, Stephen M., 2019. "A Bayesian network based approach for modeling and assessing resilience: A case study of a full service deep water port," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 378-396.
    10. Hossain, Niamat Ullah Ibne & Jaradat, Raed & Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Marufuzzaman, Mohammad & Buchanan, Randy K., 2019. "A framework for modeling and assessing system resilience using a Bayesian network: A case study of an interdependent electrical infrastructure system," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 62-83.
    11. Adel Mottahedi & Farhang Sereshki & Mohammad Ataei & Ali Nouri Qarahasanlou & Abbas Barabadi, 2021. "The Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems: A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-32, March.
    12. Varajão, João & Fernandes, Gabriela & Amaral, António & Gonçalves, A. Manuela, 2021. "Team Resilience Model: An Empirical Examination of Information Systems Projects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    13. Uday, Payuna & Chandrahasa, Rakshit & Marais, Karen, 2019. "System Importance Measures: Definitions and Application to System-of-Systems Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    14. Sun, Hao & Yang, Ming & Zio, Enrico & Li, Xinhong & Lin, Xiaofei & Huang, Xinjie & Wu, Qun, 2024. "A simulation-based approach for resilience assessment of process system: A case of LNG terminal system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    15. Adrian J. Hickford & Simon P. Blainey & Alejandro Ortega Hortelano & Raghav Pant, 2018. "Resilience engineering: theory and practice in interdependent infrastructure systems," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 278-291, September.
    16. Yu, Yuerong & Liu, Kezhong & Fu, Shanshan & Chen, Jihong, 2024. "Framework for process risk analysis of maritime accidents based on resilience theory: A case study of grounding accidents in Arctic waters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    17. Zeng, Zhiguo & Fang, Yi-Ping & Zhai, Qingqing & Du, Shijia, 2021. "A Markov reward process-based framework for resilience analysis of multistate energy systems under the threat of extreme events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    18. Ivo Häring & Mirjam Fehling-Kaschek & Natalie Miller & Katja Faist & Sebastian Ganter & Kushal Srivastava & Aishvarya Kumar Jain & Georg Fischer & Kai Fischer & Jörg Finger & Alexander Stolz & Tobias , 2021. "A performance-based tabular approach for joint systematic improvement of risk control and resilience applied to telecommunication grid, gas network, and ultrasound localization system," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 286-329, June.
    19. Almoghathawi, Yasser & Barker, Kash & Albert, Laura A., 2019. "Resilience-driven restoration model for interdependent infrastructure networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 12-23.
    20. Wang, Feng & Tian, Jin & Shi, Chenli & Ling, Jiamu & Chen, Zian & Xu, Zhengguo, 2024. "A multi-stage quantitative resilience analysis and optimization framework considering dynamic decisions for urban infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:16:p:2510-:d:1456160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.