Predicting the 305-Day Milk Yield of Holstein-Friesian Cows Depending on the Conformation Traits and Farm Using Simplified Selective Ensembles

In animal husbandry, it is of great interest to determine and control the key factors that affect the production characteristics of animals, such as milk yield. In this study, simplified selective tree-based ensembles were used for modeling and forecasting the 305-day average milk yield of Holstein-Friesian cows, depending on 12 external traits and the farm as an environmental factor. The preprocessing of the initial independent variables included their transformation into rotated principal components. The resulting dataset was divided into learning (75%) and holdout test (25%) subsamples. Initially, three diverse base models were generated using Classifiction and Regression Trees (CART) ensembles and bagging and arcing algorithms. These models were processed using the developed simplified selective algorithm based on the index of agreement. An average reduction of 30% in the number of trees of selective ensembles was obtained. Finally, by separately stacking the predictions from the non-selective and selective base models, two linear hybrid models were built. The hybrid model of the selective ensembles showed a 13.6% reduction in the test set prediction error compared to the hybrid model of the non-selective ensembles. The identified key factors determining milk yield include the farm, udder width, chest width, and stature of the animals. The proposed approach can be applied to improve the management of dairy farms.