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Analyzing an Epidemic of Human Infections with Two Strains of Zoonotic Virus

Author

Listed:
  • Yongxue Chen

    (College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China)

  • Hui Zhang

    (College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China)

  • Jingyu Wang

    (College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China)

  • Cheng Li

    (College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China)

  • Ning Yi

    (College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China)

  • Yongxian Wen

    (College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China)

Abstract

Due to the existence and variation of various viruses, an epidemic in which different strains spread at the same time will occur. here, an avian–human epidemic model with two strain viruses are established and analyzed. Both theoretical and simulation results reveal that the mixed infections intensify the epidemic and the dynamics become more complex and sensitive. There are six equilibria. The trivial equilibrium point is a high-order singular point and will undergo the transcritical bifurcations to bifurcate three equilibria. The existence and stability of equilibria mainly depend on five thresholds. A bifurcation portrait for the existence and stability of equilibria is presented. Simulations suggest that the key control measure is to develop the identification technology to eliminate the poultry infected with a high pathogenic virus preferentially, then the infected poultry with a low pathogenic virus in the recruitment and on farms. Controlling contact between human and poultry can effectively restrain the epidemic and controlling contagions in poultry can avoid great infection in humans.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongxue Chen & Hui Zhang & Jingyu Wang & Cheng Li & Ning Yi & Yongxian Wen, 2022. "Analyzing an Epidemic of Human Infections with Two Strains of Zoonotic Virus," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-27, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:7:p:1037-:d:778484
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Hui-Jia & Xu, Wenzhe & Song, Shenpeng & Wang, Wen-Xuan & Perc, Matjaž, 2021. "The dynamics of epidemic spreading on signed networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Yun Li & Peng Qin & Juping Zhang, 2018. "Dynamics Analysis of Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Epidemic Model," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-12, May.
    3. Xing, Yi & Song, Lipeng & Sun, Gui-Quan & Jin, Zhen & Zhang, Juan, 2017. "Assessing reappearance factors of H7N9 avian influenza in China," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 309(C), pages 192-204.
    4. Kuddus, Md Abdul & McBryde, Emma S. & Adekunle, Adeshina I. & White, Lisa J. & Meehan, Michael T., 2021. "Mathematical analysis of a two-strain disease model with amplification," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Lili Kong & Luping Li & Shugui Kang & Fu Chen, 2023. "Dynamic Behavior of a Stochastic Avian Influenza Model with Two Strains of Zoonotic Virus," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-21, October.

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