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A Hybrid Prediction Model Based on KNN-LSTM for Vessel Trajectory

Author

Listed:
  • Lixiang Zhang

    (School of Computer Science, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, China)

  • Yian Zhu

    (School of Computer Science, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, China)

  • Jiang Su

    (School of Software, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, China)

  • Wei Lu

    (School of Information, Xi’an University of Finance and Economics, Xi’an 710100, China)

  • Jiayu Li

    (Queen Mary University of London Engineering School, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, China)

  • Ye Yao

    (School of Computer Science, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, China)

Abstract

Trajectory prediction technology uses the trajectory data of historical ships to predict future ship trajectory, which has significant application value in the field of ship driving and ship management. With the popularization of Automatic Identification System (AIS) equipment in-stalled on ships, many ship trajectory data are collected and stored, providing a data basis for ship trajectory prediction. Currently, most of the ship trajectory prediction methods do not fully consider the influence of ship density in different sea areas, leading to a large difference in the prediction effect in different sea areas. This paper proposes a hybrid trajectory prediction model based on K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) methods. In this model, different methods are used to predict trajectory based on trajectory density. For offshore waters with a high density of trajectory, an optimized K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm is used for prediction. For open sea waters with low density of trajectory, the Long Short-Term Memory model is used for prediction. To further improve the prediction effect, the spatio-temporal characteristics of the trajectory are fully considered in the prediction process of the model. The experimental results for the dataset of historical data show that the mean square error of the proposed method is less than 2.92 × 10 −9 . Compared to the prediction methods based on the Kalman filter, the mean square error decreases by two orders of magnitude. Compared to the prediction methods based on recurrent neural network, the mean square error decreases by 82%. The advantage of the proposed model is that it can always obtain a better prediction result under different conditions of trajectory density available for different sea areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Lixiang Zhang & Yian Zhu & Jiang Su & Wei Lu & Jiayu Li & Ye Yao, 2022. "A Hybrid Prediction Model Based on KNN-LSTM for Vessel Trajectory," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-20, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:23:p:4493-:d:986996
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haotian Cui & Fangwei Zhang & Mingjie Li & Yang Cui & Rui Wang, 2022. "A Novel Driving-Strategy Generating Method of Collision Avoidance for Unmanned Ships Based on Extensive-Form Game Model with Fuzzy Credibility Numbers," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(18), pages 1-14, September.
    2. Cheng-Hong Yang & Guan-Cheng Lin & Chih-Hsien Wu & Yen-Hsien Liu & Yi-Chuan Wang & Kuo-Chang Chen, 2022. "Deep Learning for Vessel Trajectory Prediction Using Clustered AIS Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-19, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qiu, Tao & Li, Ning & Lei, Yan & Sang, Hailang & Ma, Xuejian & Liu, Zedu, 2024. "Research on the method of diesel particulate filters carbon load recognition based on deep learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    2. Li, Huanhuan & Xing, Wenbin & Jiao, Hang & Yang, Zaili & Li, Yan, 2024. "Deep bi-directional information-empowered ship trajectory prediction for maritime autonomous surface ships," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).

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