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Analysis of the Accident Propensity of Chinese Bus Drivers: The Influence of Poor Driving Records and Demographic Factors

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Listed:
  • Lili Zheng

    (Transportation College, Jilin University, No. 5988 Renmin Street, Changchun 130022, China)

  • Xinyu He

    (Transportation College, Jilin University, No. 5988 Renmin Street, Changchun 130022, China)

  • Tongqiang Ding

    (Transportation College, Jilin University, No. 5988 Renmin Street, Changchun 130022, China)

  • Yanlin Li

    (Transportation College, Jilin University, No. 5988 Renmin Street, Changchun 130022, China)

  • Zhengfeng Xiao

    (Transportation College, Jilin University, No. 5988 Renmin Street, Changchun 130022, China)

Abstract

Previous studies have shown that bus drivers are a major contributing factor to bus accidents. The aim of this study is to explore the factors that contribute to the presence of accident propensity among bus drivers, as well as the relative importance of each influencing factor and the mechanism of influence. To this end, a C5.0 decision tree model was developed to determine the relative importance as well as rank the importance of the impact of poor driving records and demographic factors on accident propensity, and a binary logistic regression model was developed to analyze the relationship between accident propensity and the different values of each essential influencing factor. Based on our results, we found that: (1) the number of violations had the most significant effect on bus drivers’ accident propensity, followed by age, driving age, and number of alarms; (2) violations and alarms are positively related to bus driver accident propensity; age and driving age are inversely related to bus driver accident propensity; and (3) men have a higher accident risk probability than women. This study’s findings will help bus companies and traffic management authorities to implement more targeted improvements to their bus driver management programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Lili Zheng & Xinyu He & Tongqiang Ding & Yanlin Li & Zhengfeng Xiao, 2022. "Analysis of the Accident Propensity of Chinese Bus Drivers: The Influence of Poor Driving Records and Demographic Factors," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(22), pages 1-20, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:22:p:4354-:d:977869
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tseng, Chien-Ming, 2012. "Social-demographics, driving experience and yearly driving distance in relation to a tour bus driver’s at-fault accident risk," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 910-915.
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    4. Aziemah Azhar & Noratiqah Mohd Ariff & Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar & Azzuhana Roslan, 2022. "Classification of Driver Injury Severity for Accidents Involving Heavy Vehicles with Decision Tree and Random Forest," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-19, March.
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