IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v10y2022i19p3436-d921226.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Mathematical Model for Ovine Brucellosis during Dynamic Transportation of Sheep, and Its Applications in Jalaid Banner and Ulanhot City

Author

Listed:
  • Jiaming Guo

    (School of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051, China)

  • Xiaofeng Luo

    (School of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051, China)

  • Juan Zhang

    (Complex System Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China)

  • Mingtao Li

    (School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China)

Abstract

Brucellosis a the serious infectious disease in Hinggan League. Research has demonstrated that a large amount of transportation is one of the main reasons for so many cases. However, the specific transmission mechanism of brucellosis is not clear. In this paper, we utilize a multi-patch model to study the effect of the transportation of sheep on the spread of brucellosis in Hinggan League. Theoretically, we prove the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the uniform persistence of the endemic equilibrium. In a practical application, we apply the model to investigate the spread of brucellosis in Ulanhot city and Jalaid Banner, which are geographically adjacent in Hinggan League. The strains carried by humans are B.melitensis bv.1 and B.melitensis bv.3. We use the two-patch model to fit reported brucellosis cases data of two places by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. It is found that the global basic reproduction number R 0 is larger than 1, but the isolated basic reproduction numbers in Ulanhot city and Jalaid Banner are both less than 1. This indicates that the prevalence of brucellosis may be caused by the transportation of sheep. Sensitivity analysis of parameters on R 0 shows that it is the most effective means to control the transportation of sheep from Jalaid to Ulanhot on preventing brucellosis. Moreover, we also discover that improving vaccine efficiency is an effective method compared with strengthening the vaccination coverage rate and improving the detection rate of sheep with brucellosis. Our dynamic behavior analysis of the two-patch model can provide a reference for the dynamic behavior analysis of the n -patch model, and our results provide a guide for how to control brucellosis based on transportation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiaming Guo & Xiaofeng Luo & Juan Zhang & Mingtao Li, 2022. "A Mathematical Model for Ovine Brucellosis during Dynamic Transportation of Sheep, and Its Applications in Jalaid Banner and Ulanhot City," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(19), pages 1-26, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:19:p:3436-:d:921226
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/19/3436/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/19/3436/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wei Zhang & Juan Zhang & Yong-Ping Wu & Li Li, 2019. "Dynamical Analysis of the SEIB Model for Brucellosis Transmission to the Dairy Cows with Immunological Threshold," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-13, May.
    2. Liang, Juan & Liu, Chen & Sun, Gui-Quan & Li, Li & Zhang, Lai & Hou, Meiting & Wang, Hao & Wang, Zhen, 2022. "Nonlocal interactions between vegetation induce spatial patterning," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 428(C).
    3. Luo, Xiao-Feng & Jin, Zhen & He, Daihai & Li, Li, 2021. "The impact of contact patterns of sexual networks on Zika virus spread: A case study in Costa Rica," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 393(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shi, Yu & Luo, Xiao-Feng & Zhang, Yong-Xin & Sun, Gui-Quan, 2023. "An indicator of Crohn’s disease severity based on Turing patterns," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    2. Guo, Gaihui & Qin, Qijing & Cao, Hui & Jia, Yunfeng & Pang, Danfeng, 2024. "Pattern formation of a spatial vegetation system with cross-diffusion and nonlocal delay," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    3. Cyrille Kenne & Gisèle Mophou & René Dorville & Pascal Zongo, 2022. "A Model for Brucellosis Disease Incorporating Age of Infection and Waning Immunity," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:19:p:3436-:d:921226. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.