A High-Resolution Analysis of the de Martonne and Emberger Indices Under Different Climate Change Scenarios: Implications on the Natural and Agricultural Landscape of Northeastern Greece

This article explores the impacts of climate change on the rural and natural landscapes in the region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, northeastern Greece. The spatial distributions of the bioclimatic de Martonne Index and the phytoclimatic Emberger Index were calculated at a very high resolution (~500 m) for present conditions (1970–2000), two future time periods (2030–2060; 2070–2100), and two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5; RCP8.5). The results show significant bioclimatic changes, especially in the Rhodope Mountain range and along almost the whole length of the Greek–Bulgarian border, where forests of high ecosystem value are located, together with the rural areas along the Evros river valley, as well as in the coastal zone of the Aegean Sea. The article describes the processes of bioclimatic changes that can significantly modify the study area’s landscapes. The study area reveals a shift toward xerothermic environments over time, with significant bioclimatic changes projected under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario. By 2100, de Martonne projections indicate that around 40% of agricultural areas in the eastern, southern, and western regions will face Mediterranean and semi-humid conditions, requiring supplemental irrigation for sustainability. The Emberger Index predicts that approximately 42% of natural and agricultural landscapes will experience sub-humid conditions with mild or cool winters. In comparison, 5% will face drier humid/sub-humid, warm winter conditions. These foreseen futures propose initial interpretations for key landscape conservation, natural capital, and ecosystem services management.