Dynamic Simulation and Reduction Path of Carbon Emission in “Three-Zone Space”: A Case Study of a Rapidly Urbanizing City

Understanding the current and future net carbon emission trajectories in “Three-Zone Space” is crucial for China to promote the formation of a low-carbon development pattern in territorial space and realize carbon neutrality. Taking Wuhan as the study area, we developed carbon emission and sequestration inventories for “Three-Zone Space”. Key driving factors of net carbon emissions were analyzed using the logarithmic mean division index, and future emissions and sequestration under six scenarios were projected with a system dynamics model. The optimal emission reduction pathway was identified through the intelligent decision-making index analysis. Our results show that Wuhan’s net carbon emission increased from 18.589 Mt in 2000 to 42.794 Mt in 2020. The emissions during this period primarily came from urban production space and urban living space. Economic development is the primary factor contributing to the increase in net carbon emissions (36.412 Mt). The efficiency of territorial space utilization is the strongest mitigator of net carbon emissions, reducing net carbon emissions by 74.341 Mt (accounting for 42.06% of total emissions). The comprehensive scenario is the most effective for net carbon emission reduction in urban and ecological spaces, while the technological progress scenario provides the greatest reduction potential in agricultural spaces. These findings provide actionable insights for optimizing spatial planning, enhancing ecological restoration, and adopting low-carbon agricultural technologies to achieve targeted emissions reductions in “Three-Zone Space”. The results of this study can further provide scientific basis for the formulation of targeted emission reduction measures for “Three-Zone Space” and guide the construction of low-carbon territorial space patterns.