Coupled PLUS and SWAT Model Assessment of Streamflow Response to Climate Change and Human Interventions in Arid Alpine Regions: A Case Study of the Zamu River, China

Climate change and human interventions have exerted a long-term influence on variations in continental streamflow. Despite this, the precise mechanisms by which these factors regulate the change in streamflow remain inadequately understood, especially in arid alpine regions, due to the limited number of observations which exacerbates difficulties in comprehensively assessing streamflow alterations. Consequently, assessing the impacts of climate change and human interventions on streamflow is a challenge in data-scarce regions. Here, using the Zamu River as an example, we analyzed streamflow changes in arid alpine regions using a method that integrates the Patch-generated Land Use Simulation model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Our analysis highlighted that climate change primarily drove streamflow variations in the Zamu River, accounting for over 80% of the observed contributions. This influence was further amplified by the effects of future climate and changes in land use and land cover, resulting in increased streamflow. Additionally, precipitation emerged as the main factor driving the rise in streamflow. These findings emphasize the significant impact of climate change on water cycles in arid alpine regions and underscore the necessity for tailored water resource management strategies to ensure sustainable regional development and effective climate change adaptation.