How Does Intensive Land Use Affect Low-Carbon Transition in China? New Evidence from the Spatial Econometric Analysis

Anthropogenic land cover change is one of the primary sources of increasing carbon emissions and affects the potential of terrestrial ecosystems to store carbon and act as carbon sinks. As a necessary means to reduce land expansion, land-use intensification significantly impacts greenhouse gas emission reduction and the low-carbon transition of the economy. This paper constructs a framework for the relationship between intensive land use ( ILU ) and low carbon transition ( LCT ), considering direct and spatially driven effects. First, this paper constructs a multidimensional indicator to measure intensive land use and documents the spatial pattern of intensive land use levels in China. Second, this paper assesses the spatial driving effect of intensive land use on China’s economic low-carbon transition. Based on data from 283 Chinese cities from 2006–2019 and using a spatial Durbin model, the study provides empirical evidence that intensive land use can significantly promote low-carbon transition in neighboring and economically linked cities (especially in eastern cities, large and medium-sized cities, and veteran economic circles). Tests introducing exogenous policy shocks further confirm the robustness of the findings. In addition, industrial structure transformation and technology spillovers are identified as the dual mechanism channels of intensive land use for low-carbon transition in China, and the spatial driving effect on neighboring cities attenuating with geographic distance is also confirmed.