IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v12y2023i2p335-d1047515.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Towards Rural Resilience: Assessing Future Spatial Urban Expansion and Population Growth in Quito as a Measure of Resilience

Author

Listed:
  • René Ulloa-Espíndola

    (Gerencia Comercial, Empresa Pública Metropolitana de Agua Potable y Saneamiento de Quito, EPMAPS Agua de Quito, Quito 170501, Ecuador
    ETSI Agronómica, Alimentaria y de Biosistemas, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid, Spain
    Departamento de Geografía, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, 43003 Tarragona, Spain)

  • Jenny Cuyo-Cuyo

    (Gerencia de Planificación y Desarrollo, Empresa Pública Metropolitana de Agua Potable y Saneamiento de Quito, EPMAPS Agua de Quito, Quito 170501, Ecuador)

  • Elisa Lalama-Noboa

    (WorldGeo, Estudios Geoespaciales, Quito 170501, Ecuador)

Abstract

The urban and rural areas of the Metropolitan District of Quito (DMQ) have experienced an aggressive urbanization process in the last two decades, which in many cases has changed the most appropriate land use as determined by the local government. This problem is exacerbated by poor land use planning in a city that is growing in an uncontrolled and disorderly manner toward rural areas, as well as by the accelerated growth of rural localities. This article contributes and analyzes: (1) the geographic projections of the next 50 years for urban settlements and buildings in the rural areas of the DMQ using geographic artificial intelligence techniques (cellular automata); (2) a composite index of resilience ( CIR ) is constructed for each rural parish of the DMQ, adapted to the characteristics and conditions of the territory for which five dimensions with equal weights, the ecological footprint, and the size of each parish were considered; finally, (3) the change in CIR is determined based on the projections of spatial urban expansion and population growth for the next 50 years. According to the results, urbanization definitely has a negative impact on CIR , although it was found that in parishes with declining population growth CIR increases.

Suggested Citation

  • René Ulloa-Espíndola & Jenny Cuyo-Cuyo & Elisa Lalama-Noboa, 2023. "Towards Rural Resilience: Assessing Future Spatial Urban Expansion and Population Growth in Quito as a Measure of Resilience," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:2:p:335-:d:1047515
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/2/335/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/2/335/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jan Corfee-Morlot & Lamia Kamal-Chaoui & Michael G. Donovan & Ian Cochran & Alexis Robert & Pierre-Jonathan Teasdale, 2009. "Cities, Climate Change and Multilevel Governance," OECD Environment Working Papers 14, OECD Publishing.
    2. Paolo Rizzi & Paola Graziano & Antonio Dallara, 2018. "A capacity approach to territorial resilience: the case of European regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(2), pages 285-328, March.
    3. Shigeaki F. Hasegawa & Takenori Takada, 2019. "Probability of Deriving a Yearly Transition Probability Matrix for Land-Use Dynamics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-11, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mutu Tantrige Osada Vishvajith Peiris, 2024. "Assessment of Urban Resilience to Floods: A Spatial Planning Framework for Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-21, October.
    2. Adriana Soledad Mejia & Marcelo Moya & Javier Martínez-Gómez, 2023. "Evaluation of the Design of Ecological Buildings Using the Matrix of Eco-Efficiency in Residential Sectors of Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antonio Ledda & Elisabetta Anna Di Cesare & Giovanni Satta & Gianluca Cocco & Giovanna Calia & Filippo Arras & Annalisa Congiu & Emanuela Manca & Andrea De Montis, 2020. "Adaptation to Climate Change and Regional Planning: A Scrutiny of Sectoral Instruments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-15, May.
    2. Cornel Zamfirescu & Andrei Cotirla, 2024. "The New Model of Sustainable Development and Economic Performance at European Level in the Current Geopolitical Context," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 115-125.
    3. Aviel Verbruggen, 2011. "A Turbo Drive for the Global Reduction of Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-17, April.
    4. Winfried Osthorst, 2020. "Tensions in Urban Transitions. Conceptualizing Conflicts in Local Climate Policy Arrangements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Antonio Ledda & Marta Kubacka & Giovanna Calia & Sylwia Bródka & Vittorio Serra & Andrea De Montis, 2023. "Italy vs. Poland: A Comparative Analysis of Regional Planning System Attitudes toward Adaptation to Climate Changes and Green Infrastructures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-18, January.
    6. Janthana Kunchornrat & Aumnad Phdungsilp, 2012. "Multi-Level Governance of Low-Carbon Energy Systems in Thailand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-14, February.
    7. Laura Gómez Aíza & Karina Ruíz Bedolla & Antonio M. Low-Pfeng & Laura M. L. Vallejos Escalona & Paola Massyel García-Meneses, 2021. "Perceptions and sustainable actions under land degradation and climate change: the case of a remnant wetland in Mexico City," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 4984-5003, April.
    8. Fouad Khan & Benjamin K. Sovacool, 2016. "Testing the efficacy of voluntary urban greenhouse gas emissions inventories," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 141-154, November.
    9. Chang-Tai Lee & Jin-Li Hu & Ming-Hsin Kung, 2022. "Economic Resilience in the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Across-Economy Comparison," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-25, April.
    10. Cristian-Nicolae Boțan & Viorel Gligor & Silviu-Florin Fonogea & Ion-Horațiu Pavel & Csaba Horvath, 2024. "Land of Maramureș (Romania) Identity Valences: Perceptions, Promotion and Potential for Valorisation," Societies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-27, November.
    11. Azevedo, Isabel & Delarue, Erik & Meeus, Leonardo, 2013. "Mobilizing cities towards a low-carbon future: Tambourines, carrots and sticks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 894-900.
    12. Jennifer S. Bansard & Philipp H. Pattberg & Oscar Widerberg, 2017. "Cities to the rescue? Assessing the performance of transnational municipal networks in global climate governance," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 229-246, April.
    13. Brennan Vogel & Daniel Henstra & Gordon McBean, 2020. "Sub-national government efforts to activate and motivate local climate change adaptation: Nova Scotia, Canada," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1633-1653, February.
    14. David Tremblay & Sabine Gowsy & Olivier Riffon & Jean-François Boucher & Samuel Dubé & Claude Villeneuve, 2021. "A Systemic Approach for Sustainability Implementation Planning at the Local Level by SDG Target Prioritization: The Case of Quebec City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-20, February.
    15. Azevedo, Isabel & Horta, Isabel & Leal, Vítor M.S., 2017. "Analysis of the relationship between local climate change mitigation actions and greenhouse gas emissions – Empirical insights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 204-213.
    16. Jun Li, 2011. "Supporting greenhouse gas mitigation in developing cities: a synthesis of financial instruments," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 16(6), pages 677-698, August.
    17. Laura Silvia Valente Macedo & Pedro Roberto Jacobi, 2019. "Subnational politics of the urban age: evidence from Brazil on integrating global climate goals in the municipal agenda," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, December.
    18. Filippo Di Pietro & Patrizio Lecca & Simone Salotti, 2021. "Regional economic resilience in the European Union: a numerical general equilibrium analysis," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 287-312, July.
    19. KYDROS Dimitrios & FILENTA Pagona, 2022. "Literature Review of Economic and Regional Development through Quantitative Methods and Social Network Analysis," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Bucharest Economic Academy, issue 01, March.
    20. Francesca Pirlone & Ilenia Spadaro & Selena Candia, 2020. "More Resilient Cities to Face Higher Risks. The Case of Genoa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-21, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:2:p:335-:d:1047515. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.