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Past and Future Changes of Land Use/Land Cover and the Potential Impact on Ecosystem Services Value of Damietta Governorate, Egypt

Author

Listed:
  • Hazem T. Abd El-Hamid

    (Department of Marine Pollution, National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries (NIOF), Cairo 11511, Egypt)

  • Hoda Nour-Eldin

    (Land Use Department, National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences (NARSS), Cairo 11769, Egypt)

  • Nazih Y. Rebouh

    (Department of Environmental Management, Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), 6 Miklukho-Maklaya Street, 117198 Moscow, Russia)

  • Ahmed M. El-Zeiny

    (Environmental Studies Department, National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences (NARSS), Cairo 11769, Egypt)

Abstract

This investigation aims to assess the changes of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) and its impact on ecosystem services value in Damietta Governorate, Egypt. To fulfill this aim, Landsat data of TM5 in 2001, ETM in 2011 and OLI in 2021 were used. The Maximum Likelihood Classifier was employed to track the changes in LULC of the study area. Cellular automata (CA) and Markov model adopted from IDRISI software were used for accurate prediction of the LULC in 2031. The VALIDATE model in TerrSet was used to compare the predicted 2031 LULC with actual 2021 LULC to assess the accuracy of the model. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment was utilized to assess the value per unit area of land types. The results indicated that there was a noticeable change in different land cover classes during the duration 2001–2021. Results showed that there are decreases in the cultivated area and the bare area, meanwhile the urban area was increased. The cultivated area was remarkably decreased recording 548.2 km 2 (62.15%) at 2001, 548.2 km 2 (55.79%) at 2011 and 468.96 km 2 (53.16%) at 2021 of the total study area. However, the percentage of urban area increased; reporting 65.69 km 2 (7.45%), 124.57 km 2 (14.12%), and 176.67 km 2 (20.03%) at 2001, 2011, and 2021, respectively. LULC analyses in 2031 showed an increase in the urban area by 2.8% and a decrease in the cultivated area by 7.2%. The kappa index values are greater than 0.80, which shows a strong agreement between simulated and predicted LULC maps. The comprehensive index of Damietta Governorate ranges from 100 to 400. The ES that experienced positive ESV changes during the study period gives strength indicator for achieving the sustainable development of Damietta Governorate. To prevent further ecosystem degradation and to ensure the best possible delivery of ES, it is necessary to reduce the current drivers of LULC changes within the buildup in agricultural land. The study helps the local authorities to better understand the land use system and to develop an improved land use management strategies that manage the urban expansion and guarantee the ecological conservation.

Suggested Citation

  • Hazem T. Abd El-Hamid & Hoda Nour-Eldin & Nazih Y. Rebouh & Ahmed M. El-Zeiny, 2022. "Past and Future Changes of Land Use/Land Cover and the Potential Impact on Ecosystem Services Value of Damietta Governorate, Egypt," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-15, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:12:p:2169-:d:989587
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    1. Rimal, Bhagawat & Sharma, Roshan & Kunwar, Ripu & Keshtkar, Hamidreza & Stork, Nigel E. & Rijal, Sushila & Rahman, Syed Ajijur & Baral, Himlal, 2019. "Effects of land use and land cover change on ecosystem services in the Koshi River Basin, Eastern Nepal," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Guan, DongJie & Li, HaiFeng & Inohae, Takuro & Su, Weici & Nagaie, Tadashi & Hokao, Kazunori, 2011. "Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(20), pages 3761-3772.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wael Mostafa & Zenhom Magd & Saif M. Abo Khashaba & Belal Abdelaziz & Ehab Hendawy & Abdelaziz Elfadaly & Mohsen Nabil & Dmitry E. Kucher & Shuisen Chen & Elsayed Said Mohamed, 2023. "Impacts of Human Activities on Urban Sprawl and Land Surface Temperature in Rural Areas, a Case Study of El-Reyad District, Kafrelsheikh Governorate, Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-19, September.
    2. Harik, G. & Alameddine, I. & Zurayk, R. & El-Fadel, M., 2023. "Uncertainty in forecasting land cover land use at a watershed scale: Towards enhanced sustainable land management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).

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