IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v10y2021i11p1121-d662468.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Timing of Tree Density Increases, Influence of Climate Change, and a Land Use Proxy for Tree Density Increases in the Eastern United States

Author

Listed:
  • Brice B. Hanberry

    (USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Rapid City, SD 57702, USA)

Abstract

Long-term observations inform relationships among changes in vegetation, climate, and land use. For the eastern United States, I compared the timing of tree change, comprised of density and diversity increases, with the timing of climate change, as measured by change point detection of the Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI) that accounts for water balance, in two prairie ecological provinces, four grassland landscapes, and four forest landscapes. Historical evidence supplied documentation of tree density increases between approximately 1860 and 1890 in the two prairie provinces of grasslands bordering eastern forests. Additionally, because timing of tree increases paralleled when land area reached ≥25% agricultural use, I categorized grassland and forest landscapes that increased to ≥25% agricultural area during 1860, 1880, 1900, and 1920. One change point detection method identified no significant PMDI change points during the 1800s. The other method found the southern prairie province, bordering eastern forests, had change points of 1855 and 1865 during an interval of relative dryness. Only two of four grassland landscapes, and one of four forest landscapes had change points, which occurred during relative dryness or were continuous with historical variation. Inconsistent changes in moisture availability did not provide correlations with comprehensive tree increases, but land use change corresponded with tree changes based on timing, magnitude and direction of change, and mechanism. The agricultural threshold may provide the critical missing component that allows progression in analysis of land use change effects on vegetation.

Suggested Citation

  • Brice B. Hanberry, 2021. "Timing of Tree Density Increases, Influence of Climate Change, and a Land Use Proxy for Tree Density Increases in the Eastern United States," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:11:p:1121-:d:662468
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/11/1121/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/11/1121/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Killick, Rebecca & Eckley, Idris A., 2014. "changepoint: An R Package for Changepoint Analysis," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 58(i03).
    2. Brice B. Hanberry, 2020. "Reclassifying the Wildland–Urban Interface Using Fire Occurrences for the United States," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-12, July.
    3. Ross, Gordon J., 2015. "Parametric and Nonparametric Sequential Change Detection in R: The cpm Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 66(i03).
    4. Indumathi Srinath & Andrew C. Millington, 2016. "Evaluating the Potential of the Original Texas Land Survey for Mapping Historical Land and Vegetation Cover," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yangjian Zhang & Li Wang & Quan Zhou & Feng Tang & Bo Zhang & Ni Huang & Biswajit Nath, 2022. "Continuous Change Detection and Classification—Spectral Trajectory Breakpoint Recognition for Forest Monitoring," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Brice B. Hanberry, 2022. "Climate Envelopes Do Not Reflect Tree Dynamics after Euro-American Settlement in Eastern North America," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-12, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lindeløv, Jonas Kristoffer, 2020. "mcp: An R Package for Regression With Multiple Change Points," OSF Preprints fzqxv, Center for Open Science.
    2. Nora M. Villanueva & Marta Sestelo & Miguel M. Fonseca & Javier Roca-Pardiñas, 2023. "seq2R: An R Package to Detect Change Points in DNA Sequences," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, May.
    3. Lykou, R. & Tsaklidis, G. & Papadimitriou, E., 2020. "Change point analysis on the Corinth Gulf (Greece) seismicity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 541(C).
    4. Petter Arnesen & Odd A. Hjelkrem, 2018. "An Estimator for Traffic Breakdown Probability Based on Classification of Transitional Breakdown Events," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(3), pages 593-602, June.
    5. Dehler-Holland, Joris & Schumacher, Kira & Fichtner, Wolf, 2021. "Topic Modeling Uncovers Shifts in Media Framing of the German Renewable Energy Act," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 2(1).
    6. Malte Willmes & Katherine M Ransom & Levi S Lewis & Christian T Denney & Justin J G Glessner & James A Hobbs, 2018. "IsoFishR: An application for reproducible data reduction and analysis of strontium isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr) obtained via laser-ablation MC-ICP-MS," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, September.
    7. Salvatore Fasola & Vito M. R. Muggeo & Helmut Küchenhoff, 2018. "A heuristic, iterative algorithm for change-point detection in abrupt change models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 997-1015, June.
    8. Park, Beum-Jo, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic, volatility, and trading behavior in the bitcoin futures market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    9. Tasadduq Imam, 2021. "Model selection for one‐day‐ahead AUD/USD, AUD/EUR forecasts," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1808-1824, April.
    10. Raputsoane, Leroi, 2018. "Temporal homogeneity between financial stress and the economic cycle," MPRA Paper 91119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Hui Zhang & Minna Väliranta & Graeme T. Swindles & Marco A. Aquino-López & Donal Mullan & Ning Tan & Matthew Amesbury & Kirill V. Babeshko & Kunshan Bao & Anatoly Bobrov & Viktor Chernyshov & Marissa , 2022. "Recent climate change has driven divergent hydrological shifts in high-latitude peatlands," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    12. Subhashis Chatterjee & Ankur Shukla, 2016. "Change point–based software reliability model under imperfect debugging with revised concept of fault dependency," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 230(6), pages 579-597, December.
    13. Josephine R. Paris & James R. Whiting & Mitchel J. Daniel & Joan Ferrer Obiol & Paul J. Parsons & Mijke J. Zee & Christopher W. Wheat & Kimberly A. Hughes & Bonnie A. Fraser, 2022. "A large and diverse autosomal haplotype is associated with sex-linked colour polymorphism in the guppy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    14. Andreas Anastasiou & Piotr Fryzlewicz, 2022. "Detecting multiple generalized change-points by isolating single ones," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 85(2), pages 141-174, February.
    15. Arjun Prakash & Nick James & Max Menzies & Gilad Francis, 2020. "Structural clustering of volatility regimes for dynamic trading strategies," Papers 2004.09963, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    16. Joni Virta & Niko Lietzén & Henri Nyberg, 2024. "Robust signal dimension estimation via SURE," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 3007-3038, July.
    17. C Jara-Figueroa & Amy Z Yu & César A Hidalgo, 2019. "How the medium shapes the message: Printing and the rise of the arts and sciences," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-14, February.
    18. Dehler-Holland, Joris & Okoh, Marvin & Keles, Dogan, 2022. "Assessing technology legitimacy with topic models and sentiment analysis – The case of wind power in Germany," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    19. Manfren, Massimiliano & Nastasi, Benedetto, 2023. "Interpretable data-driven building load profiles modelling for Measurement and Verification 2.0," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    20. Rafaï, Ismaël & Blayac, Thierry & Dubois, Dimitri & Duchêne, Sébastien & Nguyen-Van, Phu & Ventelou, Bruno & Willinger, Marc, 2023. "Stated preferences outperform elicited preferences for predicting reported compliance with COVID-19 prophylactic measures," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:11:p:1121-:d:662468. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.