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Interconnected Risk Contributions: A Heavy-Tail Approach to Analyze U.S. Financial Sectors

Author

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  • Mauro Bernardi

    (Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padua, Via C. Battisti, 241/243, 35121 Padua, Italy)

  • Lea Petrella

    (MEMOTEF Department, Sapienza University of Rome, Via del Castro Laurenziano, 9,00161 Rome, Italy)

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of tail risk interdependence among U.S. banks, financial services and insurance sectors. Life and non-life insurers have been considered separately to account for their different characteristics. The tail risk interdependence measurement framework relies on the multivariate Student-t Markov switching (MS) model and the multiple-conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) (conditional expected shortfall (CoES)) risk measures introduced in Bernardi et al. (2013), accounting for both the stylized facts of financial data and the contemporaneous multiple joint distress events. The Shapley value methodology is then applied to compose the puzzle of individual risk attributions, providing a synthetic measure of tail interdependence. Our empirical investigation finds that banks appear to contribute more to the tail risk evolution of all of the remaining sectors, followed by the financial services and the insurance sectors, showing that the insurance sector significantly contributes as well to the overall risk. We also find that the role of each sector in contributing to other sectors’ distress evolves over time according to the current predominant financial condition, implying different interdependence strength.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauro Bernardi & Lea Petrella, 2015. "Interconnected Risk Contributions: A Heavy-Tail Approach to Analyze U.S. Financial Sectors," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-29, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:8:y:2015:i:2:p:198-226:d:47812
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    Cited by:

    1. Mauro Bernardi & Leopoldo Catania, 2015. "Switching-GAS Copula Models With Application to Systemic Risk," Papers 1504.03733, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    2. Bernardi, M. & Durante, F. & Jaworski, P., 2017. "CoVaR of families of copulas," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 8-17.
    3. Rui Ding & Stan Uryasev, 2020. "CoCDaR and mCoCDaR: New Approach for Measurement of Systemic Risk Contributions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-18, November.
    4. Bernardi, Mauro & Maruotti, Antonello & Petrella, Lea, 2017. "Multiple risk measures for multivariate dynamic heavy–tailed models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-32.
    5. Arief Hakim & Khreshna Syuhada, 2023. "Formulating MCoVaR to Quantify Joint Transmissions of Systemic Risk across Crypto and Non-Crypto Markets: A Multivariate Copula Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-45, February.
    6. Foglia, Matteo & Angelini, Eliana, 2020. "From me to you: Measuring connectedness between Eurozone financial institutions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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