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Are Regulatory Short Sale Data a Profitable Predictor of UK Stock Returns?

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  • Michael Ashby

    (Downing College and Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1DQ, UK)

Abstract

Regulator-required public disclosures of net short positions do not provide a profitable investment signal for UK stocks across a variety of portfolio formation methodologies. While long-short (zero initial outlay) portfolios based on this signal usually make a profit on average, it is rarely statistically significant in either gross or risk-adjusted terms. The issue is that the short sides of the portfolios make substantial losses. Unit initial outlay portfolios based on the disclosures do not generally significantly outperform the market, either. Where they do significantly outperform the market, this outperformance is economically modest.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Ashby, 2024. "Are Regulatory Short Sale Data a Profitable Predictor of UK Stock Returns?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-33, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:8:p:320-:d:1442459
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geraci, Marco Valerio & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Veredas, David, 2023. "Common short selling and excess comovement: Evidence from a sample of LSE stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
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    5. Jank, Stephan & Roling, Christoph & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2021. "Flying under the radar: The effects of short-sale disclosure rules on investor behavior and stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 209-233.
    6. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
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