IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v17y2024i8p312-d1440788.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Potential Predictors of Psychologically Based Stock Price Movements

Author

Listed:
  • Robert East

    (Kingston Business School, Kingston University London, London KT2 7JB, UK)

  • Malcolm Wright

    (Massey Business School, Massey University, Auckland 0632, New Zealand)

Abstract

Investment in stocks is increasingly dependent on artificial intelligence (AI), but the psychological and social factors that affect stock prices may not be fully covered by the measures currently used in AI training. Here, we search for additional measures that may improve AI predictions. We start by reviewing stock price movements that appear to be affected by social and psychological factors, drawing on stock market behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic. A review of processes that are likely to produce such stock market movements follows: the disposition effect, momentum, and the response to information. These processes are then explained by regression to the mean, negativity bias, the availability mechanism, and information diffusion. Taking account of these processes and drawing on the consumer behaviour literature, we identify three factors which may not be covered by current AI training data that could affect stock prices: publicity in relation to capitalization, stock-holding penetration in relation to capitalization, and changes in the penetration of stock holding.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert East & Malcolm Wright, 2024. "Potential Predictors of Psychologically Based Stock Price Movements," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:8:p:312-:d:1440788
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/8/312/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/8/312/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uncles, Mark D. & East, Robert & Lomax, Wendy, 2010. "Market share is correlated with word-of-mouth volume," Australasian marketing journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 145-150.
    2. Locke, Peter R. & Mann, Steven C., 2005. "Professional trader discipline and trade disposition," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 401-444, May.
    3. Akhtar, Shumi & Faff, Robert & Oliver, Barry & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2011. "The power of bad: The negativity bias in Australian consumer sentiment announcements on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1239-1249, May.
    4. Merz, Oliver & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2021. "Sonic Thunder vs. Brian the Snail: Are people affected by uninformative racehorse names?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    6. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    7. Michael A. O’Brien & Tim Brailsford & Clive Gaunt, 2010. "Interaction of size, book‐to‐market and momentum effects in Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(1), pages 197-219, March.
    8. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    9. Ehrenberg, Andrew S. C. & Uncles, Mark D. & Goodhardt, Gerald J., 2004. "Understanding brand performance measures: using Dirichlet benchmarks," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 57(12), pages 1307-1325, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cici, Gjergji, 2011. "The prevalence of the disposition effect in mutual funds' trades," CFR Working Papers 11-05 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    2. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    3. Bouteska, Ahmed & Kabir Hassan, M. & Gider, Zeynullah & Bataineh, Hassan, 2024. "The role of investor sentiment and market belief in forecasting V-shaped disposition effect: Evidence from a Bayesian learning process with DSSW model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Kliger, Doron & Kudryavtsev, Andrey, 2008. "Reference point formation by market investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1782-1794, September.
    5. Szymon Lis, 2022. "Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing Models: A Review," Working Papers 2022-14, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    6. Massa, Massimo & von Beschwitz, Bastian, 2015. "Biased Shorts: Stock Market Implications of Short Sellers? Disposition Effect," CEPR Discussion Papers 10535, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Massimo Massa & Bastian von Beschwitz, 2015. "Biased Shorts: Short sellers’ Disposition Effect and Limits to Arbitrage," International Finance Discussion Papers 1147, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Cici, Gjergji, 2011. "The relation of the disposition effect to mutual fund trades and performance," CFR Working Papers 11-05, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    9. Atilgan, Yigit & Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Gunaydin, A. Doruk, 2020. "Left-tail momentum: Underreaction to bad news, costly arbitrage and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 725-753.
    10. Marco Pleßner, 2017. "The disposition effect: a survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 1-30, February.
    11. Dierick, Nicolas & Heyman, Dries & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Stieperaere, Hannes, 2019. "Financial attention and the disposition effect," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 190-217.
    12. Jordan Moore, 2020. "Glamour among value: P/E ratios and value investor attention," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(3), pages 673-706, September.
    13. An, Li & Argyle, Bronson, 2021. "Overselling winners and losers: How mutual fund managers' trading behavior affects asset prices," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    14. Sun, Kaisi & Wang, Hui & Zhu, Yifeng, 2023. "Salience theory in price and trading volume: Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 38-61.
    15. Dorn, Daniel & Strobl, Günter, 2023. "Rational disposition effects: Theory and evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    16. Shoji, Isao & Kanehiro, Sumei, 2016. "Disposition effect as a behavioral trading activity elicited by investors' different risk preferences," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 104-112.
    17. Singal, Vijay & Xu, Zhaojin, 2011. "Selling winners, holding losers: Effect on fund flows and survival of disposition-prone mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2704-2718, October.
    18. Brad M. Barber & Yi‐Tsung Lee & Yu‐Jane Liu & Terrance Odean, 2007. "Is the Aggregate Investor Reluctant to Realise Losses? Evidence from Taiwan," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(3), pages 423-447, June.
    19. Hou, Yang & Meng, Jiayin, 2018. "The momentum effect in the Chinese market and its relationship with the simultaneous and the lagged investor sentiment," MPRA Paper 94838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Bradrania, Reza & Veron, Jose Francisco, 2023. "The beta anomaly in the Australian stock market and the lottery demand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:8:p:312-:d:1440788. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.