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Financial Fragility and Public Social Spending: Unraveling the Endogenous Nexus

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  • Dionysios Kyriakopoulos

    (Department of Political Science and Public Administration, School of Economics and Political Sciences, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 106 78 Athens, Greece)

  • John Yfantopoulos

    (Athens MBA, School of Economics and Political Sciences, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 106 78 Athens, Greece)

  • Theodoros Stamatopoulos

    (Department of Accounting and Finance, School of Administrative, Economics and Social Sciences, University of West Attica, 122 41 Athens, Greece)

Abstract

This article provides both stylized facts and estimations of the endogenous nexus of the financial fragility hypothesis (FFH) with public social spending (PSS) for a paradigmatic Eurozone member country. The sample period 1995–2022 includes three major economic crises, the global financial crisis 2007–2009, the European debt crisis 2010–2015 and the COVID-19 pandemic one in 2020–2022. Within the context of the financialization literature, this paper is founded, for the first time, as far as we know, on the “financial fragility hypothesis”, combining the effects of both Minsky’s “financial instability”, as it has been extended for open economies, and the “Eurozone fragility one”. Similar to the relevant literature, the findings show that the PSS is associated, in a long-term steady state (cointegration), with the financial fragility process, starting, firstly, from the hedge-financing structure with high profitability of firms, when PSS decreases; secondly, to hyper-speculative financing with risky options, supported by bank credit and openness, indebtedness or discretionary fiscal policy, when PSS rises; thirdly, to the hyper-speculative or even Ponzi financing structures with over-indebtedness (leverage) from the global capital market, inflated asset prices and internationalized fragility, when PSS also rises, and so on. Our conclusion validates Minsky’s famous saying, “stability breeds instability”, also in the architecturally incomplete Eurozone. Policy implications are straightforward and discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Dionysios Kyriakopoulos & John Yfantopoulos & Theodoros Stamatopoulos, 2024. "Financial Fragility and Public Social Spending: Unraveling the Endogenous Nexus," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-29, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:6:p:235-:d:1409462
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447.
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    5. Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Christos Pierros, 2020. "Income distribution, structural competitiveness and financial fragility of the Greek economy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 50-74, January.
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