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Comparative Analysis of Stock Bubble in S&P 500 Individual Stocks: A Study Using SADF and GSADF Models

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  • Durga Acharya

    (College of Business, Westcliff University, Irvine, CA 92614, USA)

Abstract

Stock bubbles are characterized by unpredictable price surges and subsequent declines, causing significant losses for investors. This study investigates the effectiveness of the Generalized Sup Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) test in identifying mild explosive patterns and speculative bubbles within individual S&P 500 stocks, as compared to the Sup Augmented Dickey–Fuller (SADF) test. Utilizing real-time monitoring data, this research examines unit roots, stationarity, and the ability to detect multiple structural breaks. The GSADF test consistently outperforms the SADF test in rejecting the null hypothesis, demonstrating greater sensitivity and efficacy in recognizing stock bubbles. Monte Carlo simulations address size distortions in the GSADF test, enhancing accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Durga Acharya, 2024. "Comparative Analysis of Stock Bubble in S&P 500 Individual Stocks: A Study Using SADF and GSADF Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:2:p:59-:d:1333658
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Symposium on Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 13-18, Spring.
    2. Camerer, Colin, 1989. "Bubbles and Fads in Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 3-41.
    3. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-930, September.
    4. Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2005. "Rational bubbles or persistent deviations from market fundamentals?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2523-2539, October.
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