IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v17y2024i12p538-d1529975.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimizing Energy Storage Profits: A New Metric for Evaluating Price Forecasting Models

Author

Listed:
  • Simone Sbaraglia

    (Department of Economics and Business Sciences, University of Cagliari, 09123 Cagliari, Italy)

  • Alessandro Fiori Maccioni

    (Department of Economics and Business Sciences, University of Cagliari, 09123 Cagliari, Italy)

  • Stefano Zedda

    (Department of Economics and Business Sciences, University of Cagliari, 09123 Cagliari, Italy)

Abstract

Storage profit maximization is based on buying energy at the lowest prices and selling it at the highest prices. The best strategy must thus be based on both accurately predicting the price peak hours and on rightly choosing when to buy and when to sell the stored energy. In this aim, price prediction is crucial, but choosing the prediction model by means of the usual metrics, as the lowest mean squared error, is not an effective solution as the mean squared error computation equally weights the prediction error of all prices, while the focus must be on the higher and lower prices. In this paper, we propose a new metric focused on the correct forecasting of high and low prices so as to allow for a more effective choice among price forecasting models. Results show that the new metric outperforms the standard metrics, allowing for a more accurate estimation of the possible profit for storage (or other trading) activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Simone Sbaraglia & Alessandro Fiori Maccioni & Stefano Zedda, 2024. "Optimizing Energy Storage Profits: A New Metric for Evaluating Price Forecasting Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-29, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:12:p:538-:d:1529975
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/12/538/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/12/538/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Spyros Makridakis & Evangelos Spiliotis & Vassilios Assimakopoulos, 2018. "Statistical and Machine Learning forecasting methods: Concerns and ways forward," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-26, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Smyl, Slawek, 2020. "A hybrid method of exponential smoothing and recurrent neural networks for time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 75-85.
    2. Hewamalage, Hansika & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bandara, Kasun, 2021. "Recurrent Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting: Current status and future directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 388-427.
    3. Spiliotis, Evangelos & Makridakis, Spyros & Kaltsounis, Anastasios & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2021. "Product sales probabilistic forecasting: An empirical evaluation using the M5 competition data," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    4. Miroslav Navratil & Andrea Kolkova, 2019. "Decomposition and Forecasting Time Series in the Business Economy Using Prophet Forecasting Model," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(4), pages 26-39.
    5. Joel A. Martínez-Regalado & Cinthia Leonora Murillo-Avalos & Purificación Vicente-Galindo & Mónica Jiménez-Hernández & José Luis Vicente-Villardón, 2021. "Using HJ-Biplot and External Logistic Biplot as Machine Learning Methods for Corporate Social Responsibility Practices for Sustainable Development," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(20), pages 1-16, October.
    6. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    7. Huber, Jakob & Stuckenschmidt, Heiner, 2020. "Daily retail demand forecasting using machine learning with emphasis on calendric special days," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1420-1438.
    8. Pannee Suanpang & Pitchaya Jamjuntr, 2024. "Machine Learning Models for Solar Power Generation Forecasting in Microgrid Application Implications for Smart Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-29, July.
    9. Weronika Ormaniec & Marcin Pitera & Sajad Safarveisi & Thorsten Schmidt, 2022. "Estimating value at risk: LSTM vs. GARCH," Papers 2207.10539, arXiv.org.
    10. Costa, Marcelo Azevedo & Ruiz-Cárdenas, Ramiro & Mineti, Leandro Brioschi & Prates, Marcos Oliveira, 2021. "Dynamic time scan forecasting for multi-step wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 584-595.
    11. Vaia I. Kontopoulou & Athanasios D. Panagopoulos & Ioannis Kakkos & George K. Matsopoulos, 2023. "A Review of ARIMA vs. Machine Learning Approaches for Time Series Forecasting in Data Driven Networks," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-31, July.
    12. Van Belle, Jente & Guns, Tias & Verbeke, Wouter, 2021. "Using shared sell-through data to forecast wholesaler demand in multi-echelon supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(2), pages 466-479.
    13. Mei-Li Shen & Cheng-Feng Lee & Hsiou-Hsiang Liu & Po-Yin Chang & Cheng-Hong Yang, 2021. "An Effective Hybrid Approach for Forecasting Currency Exchange Rates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-29, March.
    14. Anna Almosova & Niek Andresen, 2023. "Nonlinear inflation forecasting with recurrent neural networks," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 240-259, March.
    15. Ajith, Meenu & Martínez-Ramón, Manel, 2023. "Deep learning algorithms for very short term solar irradiance forecasting: A survey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    16. Icaro Romolo Sousa Agostino & Wesley Vieira da Silva & Claudimar Pereira da Veiga & Adriano Mendonça Souza, 2020. "Forecasting models in the manufacturing processes and operations management: Systematic literature review," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1043-1056, November.
    17. Meriem Riad & Mohamed Naimi & Chafik Okar, 2024. "Enhancing Supply Chain Resilience Through Artificial Intelligence: Developing a Comprehensive Conceptual Framework for AI Implementation and Supply Chain Optimization," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-26, November.
    18. Faisal Khalil & Gordon Pipa, 2022. "Is Deep-Learning and Natural Language Processing Transcending the Financial Forecasting? Investigation Through Lens of News Analytic Process," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 147-171, June.
    19. Evangelos Spiliotis & Fotios Petropoulos & Vassilios Assimakopoulos, 2023. "On the Disagreement of Forecasting Model Selection Criteria," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-12, June.
    20. Rybinski, Krzysztof, 2021. "Ranking professional forecasters by the predictive power of their narratives," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 186-204.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:12:p:538-:d:1529975. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.